A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Sunday, July 2, 2017
Certainty of approaching uncertainty
A political muddle looms in 2020
The batting side; 0 for 3, all lbw
The howling, sorry bowling side
The howling, sorry bowling side
by Kumar David-July 1, 2017, 5:24 pm
Unless
one is a head in the sand ostrich it is possible to discern the
contours of the emerging 2020 landscape. I am no soothsayer and know
predictions go awry, but when a configuration is taking shape one is
obliged to sketch it. I am aware that protagonists on both sides will
challenge me, alleging I am biased against their side; I have faced this
in many conversations. By sides I mean what you may call government
supporters of various hues (green, purple, pink), on one side, and on
the other Gota-Mahinda, the Joint Opposition (JO), BBS etc. The former
include Tamils and Muslims to a man (notwithstanding Wijedasa Rajapaksha
a civilian version of Gota) and most Catholics (notwithstanding MR fan
Malcolm Ranjith). Instinctively, everyone is hostile to inconvenient
truths about their side but upon reflection most people, I think, will
concede that what I say is more right than wrong.
At this point in time I see the most likely scenario in 2020 as rather a
mess; a stable presidency and a parliamentary working majority for
either side seem unlikely. The purpose of this piece is to set up a
pendulum which we can recalibrate from time to time. The corner stones
of my thesis are grouped into four; the first is Public Perceptions.
Public perceptions
* The big gain of January 8, 2015, the defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa (MR),
ended rights violations, authoritarianism, white-vans, unhampered abuse
of power and corruption. This victory I continue to salute even as I
fault the government on other things. This core achievement remains in
place.*
* Corruption continues but government supporters say it is not as bad as
before. Others ask. "Have we exchanged Basil for Mahendran?" The big
picture on corruption seems not as bad.
* Is governance somewhat better? Well not having Mervyn, Namal, Bandula,
Wimal and such scoundrels is a blessing. But what the heck, this is a
pretty low hurdle!
* Is governance somewhat worse? The government is not in control –
strikes, stoppages, doctors shifting from Hippocratic to hypocritical
oaths and inciting student mobs. Ranil and Sirisena are seen as a
weak-kneed duumvirate, humiliated at every turn, whose writ runs
nowhere. The GMOA for one has got Sirisena cringing like a whipped
puppy. MR would have imposed an emergency on the health sector by now; I
am noting the difference, not making a suggestion.
* [* I may have to eat my words. After this piece was drafted Wijedasa
panicked Lakshan Dias into fleeing the country (dbsjeyaraj.com);
Gnanasara is running free again; we had the fusillade from Asgiriya].
If you ask me to grade the government on this set of considerations I
will give it 50% where 40% is the pass mark. How will the electorate
grade it in 2020? I think 40 to 50%.
Constitution and stability
The second group relates to Constitution, Stability and minority concerns.
* Ranil and Sirisena have successfully reached a modus vivendi giving
each other space and recognition. The relationship is stable; the effort
of the plotters in the Rajapaksa kennel to drive a wedge has come to
naught. It is obvious the UNP-SLFP contract will be renewed in December
and it is likely that the coalition will run its full parliamentary term
as neither dare pull out.
* Nobody knows what will become of the new constitution – nobody
includes Ranil and Sirisena! If you are irate at being in the dark,
spare a sigh for our dear directionless leaders. Sirisena is foresworn
to repeal the executive presidency. What’s holding him back? Why all
this talk of options (retain exec pres, semi exec pres, powers and
selection PM)? Murky waters run deep. His reluctance to issue firm
instructions to ‘Throw out the exec pres’, is, to say the least,
curious. Does he harbour residual ambitions for after 2020?
* Primitive provisions on religiosity and language will stay in place.
Lanka is culturally too backward for secularism and pluralism. The
native hoi-polloi will rejoice and the UNP, SLFP, JO, Dead-Left, JHU,
JVP, the entire bunch, will collect votes. This one is a zero sum game.
* Unitary, unified, united, univocal and uniflow verbal gymnastics will
be retained to fool the aforesaid hoi-polloi. How about: Sri Lanka will
be unitary, unified, devolved and decentralised! My contempt for
constipated nationalists and religious quacks shouldn’t surprise you.
We can’t see this early the electorate’s response in 2020 to whatever
constitutional jack rabbit is pulled out of the hat. Furthermore there
is the dilemma of a constitutional referendum and its outcome. Come hell
come high water Tamils and Muslims will shun anything with MR or Gota
odour. Politicos in the south will all hedge their bets and play
Sinhala-Buddhism, so we can safely conclude the constitution will not be
a significant swing factor in moving Sinhalese votes.
Inability to bring villains to justice
The third item is prosecuting and convicting scoundrels, and law and order in general.
* The overwhelming public perception, justifiable or otherwise, is that
that this administration has failed to prosecute and punish rogues,
abusers and murders of the Rajapaksa era. Come 2020 this will be a
damning indictment in the eyes of the electorate. Last minute
convictions will leave a taste not of justice but victimisation.
* Law-and-order under the aegis of this administration is judged
negatively by the public at large. Police, prosecutors, prison
authorities and the machinery of state are seen as ambivalent, disloyal
or incompetent. The Joint Opposition has an effective fifth column
within the state at large.
The inveterate teacher in me wants to assign a grade to the government
on these points. That grade, I am afraid, is Fail. I think the 2020
electorate will concur.
The Economy
The final consideration is the Economy, by far the most important. This
is not the place for analysis; that needs a whole essay and I have done
it before. What I should do here is to judge to what degree the
government’s plusses and minuses on the economy will help or hinder its
re-election. However I cannot plunge in without a few comments on policy
and absence of policy.
It is clear the government does not have a functional economic
orientation. What is less clear, but more important, is why.
Think-tanks, business and financial supplements in the press,
conventional economists, columnists and bourgeois pundits bray a
monologue. Encourage foreign investors, let the private sector lead,
offer tax breaks to capital (the rich), export-orient, be coherent,
pragmatic, effective, consistent and committed – wow these guys have
access to a fine thesaurus. The secret cipher word is reforms, code for
easy firing, slashing employment protection, axing welfare, and sinking
the share of the economic pie to the less well off. Do these pundits
imagine that Ranil’s old style, like themselves, team – Charitha, Eran,
Paski, Harsha and two ex-finance ministers – is not committed hook line
and sinker to just this? Sure the SLFP Ministers know as much about
economics as I know about knitting stockings but this is not the
decisive obstacle though some policy U-turns are attributable to
conflicts in the political milieu.
The barrier lies elsewhere. Why is traditional economic policy not
getting anywhere? That’s the question. It is not working not for want of
effort, but due to a negative global and domestic environment. Global
capital is reluctant to invest in production not only in Lanka but
everywhere, its heartlands as well; the post-2008 syndrome lingers.
(Finance capital and e-marketing is a different game). Lanka’s domestic
seeni-bola capitalists are not gung-ho about investing in production and
employment creating ventures – with a few exceptions. Local capital has
no dynamism at this juncture. If the much canvassed tax and anti-labour
concessions are granted, the response will be: dunnama kannang, kala
duwannang. It is not that capital, foreign and local, is not offered a
fair break; it is that for well understood reasons it won’t take it.
Liberal-bourgeois economics is in the driving seat but getting nowhere.
Does anyone in his right mind imagine that a government with an economic
programme further to the right of this UNP-led one will materialise? No
way.
There is an alternative to neo-liberalism - a state-led dirigisme
strategy mimicking South Korea and Deng. I suspect Ranil sees it but is
powerless because the mindset of his team is stuck in the stone-age. (I
am puzzled why the two November 2016 planning Bills never saw the light
of day in parliament). Increasing exports, disposing of some SOEs,
targeting debt and above all increasing output, all this is in
everybody’s workbook. How to get it done? State negotiated trade
agreements with China, Singapore, and India (ECTA), government
underwritten or directed joint-ventures etc. can bring quick results.
Technical education and technology parks are imperative for productivity
enhancement in the long term.
I must cut this digression into policy-space and get back to my theme.
What are the prospects that between now and 2020 the UNP-SLFP alliance
will have sufficient economic accomplishments under its belt to persuade
the electorate that it deserves a second term? The frank answer is
prospects aren’t good. I don’t see much coming to fruition in the next
two years.
At the same time it is astounding that the Joint Opposition, Gota-MR and
GL’s funny party all have no economic programme whatsoever! This will
be forcefully driven into the public mind in 2020.
Love and hate of the Rajapaksas
The government’s strongest suit is that MR and Gota more so, are poison
to minorities, liberals, democrats and non-dead leftists. Eighty percent
of minorities plus a third of Sinhala-Buddhists is a shade over 45%
nationally. On the other side there is a core Sinhala nationalist
war-victory inebriated lobby embracing the opposition. Unless the
Rajapaksa clan’s butts are firmly parked in the cooler, up to 60% of
Sinhala-Buddhists (40% nationally) will stay loyal. This is a ceiling
near impossible for the JO to crack since it is denied the use and abuse
of state power. Its only hope is a three cornered fight; not
impossible.
It seems the 15% swing-voter is king.
My storyline is a projection of visible trends; perhaps a bit linear.
The factor I have omitted for want of space is foreign influence, which
will, China included, oppose a Gota-MR ticket. Readers, I hope, see a
rational thread in the flow of ideas in this essay. It gravitates
towards the view that year 2020 will bring uncertainty, possibly a hung
parliament, very likely a disoriented president and a muddle. We do live
in interesting times, don’t we?