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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Monday, July 9, 2018
Earthquakes stuns US Democrats and Mexico
Populism (Alt-Right, Alt-Left) and the global struggle for hegemony
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (28): Socialist and potentially youngest Congresswoman (https://ocasio2018.com/)
Mexico’s Andres
Manuel Lopez Obrador after victory
(https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/01/americas/mexico-election-president-intl/index.html)
Kumar David-July 7, 2018, 8:08 pm
A
tussle for the future of the US Democratic Party (DP) has begun. The
surge to populism whose highest point so far was the election of Donald
Trump and a more recent event was the return of autocrat Erdogan to the
Turkish Presidency on a ticket to breach democracy, reverted to the US
last week. It is an event that most of the world will take little note
of but will shake up the US Democratic Party and change the complexion
of the challenge to Trump’s presidency. It came as a victorious
challenge by unknown till the results were known Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez (28) who ousted a 10-term incumbent DP Congressman for the
right to contest the November House of Representatives (‘lower’ house
of Congress) as candidate for New York’s 14-th District. This is a sure
bet Democrat seat so she will soon be in Congress.
This piece is about my pet topic of the last two years that is getting
under the skin of IQ80 readers and the LSSP leader who want soda-bottle
analyses; it’s about sweep of neo-populism, mostly Alt-Right but
sometimes Alt-Left. I won’t offer you learned definitions of the
distinction but cough up examples which will serve us better. Alt-Right
is Victor Oban of Hungary in the extreme corner, Trump’s base which
feels betrayed and disillusioned with the "swamp", and at home the
corrupt populist Rajapaksas. The Five-Star part of the Italian ruling
populist menagerie, New Zealand’s Labour Party of Prime Minister Jacinda
Arden and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Amlo) elected Prime Minister of
Mexico on 1 July are Alt-Left. Britain’s Labour Party and the Bernie
Sanders movement in the US have substantial programmes and I do not
write them off as populists. Modi is something of a taxonomist’s enigma.
US Democratic Party
primary
Before getting my teeth into the global sweep of neo-populism and
Lanka’s Buddhist-fascist-chauvinist and retired military officer
inspired Gota version, I need to say a few words about the AO-C
(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) phenomenon. The Democratic Party (DP), as now
established, has nothing to offer the 30+% of less privileged
American’s who steadfastly support Trump. This DP is a bastion of
elitism led by educationally and intellectually privileged East and West
Coast snobs who in programme, attitude and lifestyle have nothing to
offer the less well-off. In these times of erosion of social structures
(immigration, opiate crisis) and rout by foreign economic competition (I
desist from my favourite cliché "collapse of capitalism") this
dead-as-a-door-nail DP is getting nowhere. Democrats revel in repeating
Kim Jong Un’s description of Trump as a "mentally deranged dotard", and
true as this may be they have made no headway in breaking Trump’s base
vote. If at all his rating has risen marginally from 39% to 41% in
recent months. Nor do the Democrats have a rural agenda to nullify the
Trump swing.
After she won, people and the media were asking "Who is this woman;
where in the woodwork did she come from?" She delivered what the media
is calling an earthquake. Ocasio-Cortez’s own story begins in the Bronx;
as briefly as possible, she is the daughter of working class Puerto
Rican parents, studied economics at Boston University, worked as a
community organizer and then took a low-paid, long-hours job at a
restaurant. During the 2016 primary she was an organizer for Bernie
Sanders. Her campaign for nomination was door-to-door in working class
areas and among coloureds and blacks. Her programme is much the same as
Sanders’ programme; visit https://ocasio2018.com/ for more. (Democrats
and Republicans hold selection-elections called a Primary among their
loyalists in the relevant electorate to choose the party’s candidate.
Candidates are not chosen by a party committee or party leaders).
Let me make my point and move on. What can beat Trump is not calling him
a moron, boor, rake and liar; all true but water on a duck’s back for
his faithful and for underprivileged and unemployed white workers,
depressed rural communities and now blacks who see no reason to support
the establishment DP. The three wealthiest Americans own more than the
lowest 50% of America, so unsurprisingly Alexandria proved that it was
an issues based campaign that mattered to ordinary Democratic primary
voters and may eventually penetrate the lower ranks of the GOP. What
issues: Medicare for all, universal job guarantees, housing, funding for
education, justice in immigration and reform of a vicious law and order
and court system. This is what a US Social Democratic Programme reads
like. In the UK, mutatis mutandis, this is the Labour Party’s outlook.
The hot-topic now is how far the process in the DP will escalate and
‘beyond-liberal’ candidates gain ground. We will have to wait and see.
Mexico
The
1 July Mexican election was a referendum on the country’s political
elite, economic direction and a questioning of the underlying policies
of post-cold war Mexico. Left-populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(Amlo) who won the presidency by a large majority at his third attempt,
vowed to topple a political establishment he likens to "mafia power". He
promised to divert the money that greases the wheels of political graft
to social programs. His opponents say he will plunge the country into
debt and economic turmoil, like cynical Lankans who may add that they
have seen it all before. Right now however football crazed Mexicans are
weeping over their World Cup defeat by Brazil on 2 July.
Mexico is the second largest country after Brazil in population and
economy in the Americas south of the US. Corruption and crime are major
issues; the country had 25,000 homicides last year, the highest number
since data tracking commenced two decades ago.
Previous presidents got tough on drugs and locked up kingpins but when a
second wave of dealers surfaced a few years later the authorities could
not respond adequately. Corruption is a huge issue and goes to the very
top.
The outgoing government hampered prosecution of corrupt politicos; the
larger, more numerous and more highly placed the corrupt, the more
easily cases get buried – carbon copy of yahapalana.
Amlo has promised to tone down market-friendly economic policies, cut
extravagant mega projects, reduce the pay of the President and high
officials, introduce scholarships for poor students and start a pension
scheme for the elderly and the disabled. He has not spelled out how he
will find the money but he is unlikely to backtrack on these pledges
making him an Alt-Left populist. He wants to hold a mid-term referendum
on his own performance after two years – he must avoid inauspicious 10
Feb! He was Mayor of Mexico City from 2000 to 2005 and quit with high
approval ratings. He is a shrewd pragmatist unlike Ranil. The Presidency
is an immensely bigger challenge and the world is watching. Morena,
Amlo’s electoral front of the Labour Party and the Social Encounter
Party of religious conservatives, is different from Ranil’s UNP(F) on
both social and economic policy. Moreno won 210 of the 300 seats in the
Chamber of Deputies. Both Presidency and Chamber were landslides.
The global fate of Alt-Left Populism may be riding on the back of this
Mexican maverick and New Zealand’s immensely popular new Prime Minister
Jacinda Arden. Arden’s popularity flows from her charm and style and the
perception that she is transparent and honest; it has little to do with
any economic achievements to date, however that is what will count.
Arden is a social democrat and an environmentalist but in the long run
it is the ability to discipline and manage the economy while delivering
welfare goodies that matters. Left populism is free of racism and hatred
and Arden has proved her worth in this respect.
The British Labour Party is more solidly social democratic, as opposed
to Alt-Left populist, but dour faced Jeremy Corbyn can pick up a lot in
the style and smile from the charming Miss Arden. A Labour victory in
the next election is important for Britain but its significance
stretches far beyond the British Isles. It will resonate all over Europe
and in the Americas and the ensuing effects on political psychology can
stem the tide of rising Alt-Right and neo-fascist tendencies in the
European continent. The most important is Germany; a Labour Party defeat
in the UK will grist to the mill of AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) a
far-right party which made substantial gains in the 2017 Federal
Elections to become the country’s ‘third party’. The fight for Labour in
the UK has global ramifications that will affect us all.
It’s not good to sign off on an essay like this one without a brief
homily about the deplorable domestic scene. It would not be erroneous to
draw a parallel between the global Alt-Right and Mahinda-Gota racial
religio-fascist populism and the electoral swing evidenced in February.
While a Gota presidency, arguably, is unlikely it is my estimation that
pro-Mahinda jackals will do well in Sinhalese electorates in
parliamentary elections. To stem this trend we cannot depend one iota on
Ranil and his UNP morons; Sirisena is an insidious Gota collaborator;
the Dead Left explicit traitors. The Better-Left (JVP, ULF, Bahu’s NSSP
etc.) and the remnant rump of liberalism must pull together. Without
illusions but out of necessity they must collaborate with the UNP,
dissident-SLFPers and with Tamil and Muslim organisations. The challenge
calls for flexibility and intelligence, both in short supply.