Winners and losers

Editorial-September 22, 2013

The PC polls have ended without surprises. The UPFA has won comfortably in the Northwestern (NWP) and Central Provinces (CP) and the TNA has swept the polls in the Northern Province (NP). The UNP and the JVP have lost as usual and Gen. Sarath Fonseka’s newly formed Democratic Party (DP) has got something to crow about. The Elections Commissioner says the polls were free and fair in spite of several incidents.

The TNA has naturally become the centre of attention. It bagged the North in style by winning all electorates in that province and obtaining 78.48% of the votes and 30 seats—UPFA 18.38% and 7 seats, the SLMC 1.5 % and one seat and the UNP 0.68% and no seat. For a political party, winning an election is one thing but retaining its popularity as well as honouring its promises is quite another. This is the task before the TNA. It has a choice between adopting a confrontational approach in dealing with the government from the word go and making use of its popular mandate to work for the betterment of the North. This is the first time the TNA is going to wield power and whether it will be able to live up to people’s expectations remains to be seen.

Either the UNP or the SLFP has so far controlled the provincial councils since the EPRLF-run North-East PC was dissolved in 1989. With the TNA out to exercise all powers under the 13th Amendment we will see how devolution really works.

The DP has eaten into the vote bases of the UPFA, the UNP and the JVP considerably. In the NWP it polled 4.34% of votes (3 seats)—UPFA 66.43% (34 seats), UNP 24.21% (12 seats), SLMC 2.62% (two seats) and JVP 1.85% (one seat). In the Central Province it polled 3.8% of votes and won two seats—UPFA 60.16% (36 seats), UNP 27.79%, (16 seats), CWC P-wing 2.46% (two seats), SLMC 1.49% (one seat), the Up Country People’s Front 2.09% (one seat) and the JVP 1.17% (no seat).

Gen. Fonseka has proved that hard work pays. He beavered away at his party’s polls campaign for weeks on end, addressing as he did hundreds of pocket meetings. However, if he is to realise his goal of challenging the government effectively his target should be the UNP and not the JVP.

The need for a course correction has been staring the UNP in the face for a long time. Unless it sorted out its internal problems and got its act together without relying on forging alliances with microscopic parties to gain political traction, a comeback wouldn’t be possible in the foreseeable future. Its vote base has shrunk in the NWP from 28.07% (in 2009) to 24.21% and the number of seats has dropped from 14 (in 2009) to 12. In the CP its votes have come down from 38.65% (in 2009) to 27.79% and the number of its seats has decreased from 22 (in 2009) to 16. It managed to win only one electorate (Mahanuwara) out of a total of 40 in the two provinces.

The UPFA has reason to worry in the NWP. It mobilised the entire state machinery in its expensive election campaign, but its vote base has shrunk from 69.43% (in 2009) to 66.43%. It has lost three seats out of 37 it had in the previous council. However, it obtained 60.16% of votes in the CP as opposed to 59.53% in 2009 and retained all its seats (36). It has, no doubt, secured a bridgehead in northern politics but it has its work cut out where the expansion of its support base in that part of the country is concerned. Development alone won’t work.

The government, however, ought to continue its development work in the North in spite of the TNA’s spectacular victory the way it is doing in the Colombo City despite its loss to the UNP at the last local government polls. The interests of people should take precedence over everything else.

One of our journalists who toured the North prior to the PC polls tells us that in Kilinochchi an elderly Tamil gentleman who had nice things to say about the government, when asked whether he would vote for the UPFA, answered in the negative. He said the TNA was his choice. Asked why, he replied, "Simply because a woman smiles with a man, it doesn’t mean she is ready to marry him." Perhaps, this is the best description of the people’s verdict in the North.

The North has smiled and it is up to the government to woo her further and build a strong relationship.