FactCheck Q&A: will Brexit lead to independence for Scotland?

FactCheck Q&A: will Brexit lead to independence for Scotland?

Nicola Sturgeon and Tony Blair, among others, have warned that a vote to leave the EU in June could lead to the end of the United Kingdom

February 26, 2016 

The theory is that Brexit would be so unpopular with Scottish voters that it would trigger a second independence referendum, and angry Scots would do what they failed to do last time.

Is this doom-mongering, or is there a real danger of the UK falling apart?

How do Scots feel about the EU?

Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said a “leave” vote in the EU referendum would create an “overwhelming demand” for another #indyref.

Polling certainly suggests that Scots are much more likely to vote to stay in the EU than the English on 23 June.

As we found in another FactCheck, recent research from NatCen Social Research found that around half of English voters wanted to stay in Europe, compared to around two-thirds of Scots and three-quarters of voters in Northern Ireland.

Some politicians have expressed doubts about the real strength of the pro-EU vote, with former SNP leader Gordon Wilson saying he and other nationalists might vote “strategically” for Brexit in the belief that it will hasten Scotland towards independence.

And ex-deputy leader Jim Sillars said he was “astonished” at the number of party members planning to vote to leave the EU. But all this appears to be purely anecdotal.

As things stand, there is a clear pro-EU bias in polls of Scottish voters, and it goes back at least 15 years, according to NatCen Social Research:

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