Republicans have grown increasingly worried about losing control of the
Senate, as President Trump’s approval rating tumbles and Democrats gain
steam in key battleground races.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Tuesday sounded some
of the most doubtful notes of Trump’s presidency that Republicans will
keep the upper chamber of Congress, telling reporters, “I hope when the
smoke clears, we’ll still have a majority.”
His comments came as Republican strategists and officials fretted over a
fresh round of private polling on the Senate races, while public polls
registered further erosion in Americans’ approval of Trump. “Shipwreck”
was how one leading strategist described the situation, adding an
expletive to underscore the severity of the party’s problems.
One of the most unexpected fights is in reliably GOP Texas, where Sen.
Ted Cruz is trying to fend off Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
Republicans are so fearful about losing the seat that they are diverting
resources to Texas, a sore point in the White House after the animosity
between Cruz and Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary.
Beyond Texas, Sen. Joe Donnelly, once seen as perhaps the most
vulnerable Democratic incumbent, has opened up a slight edge over
Republican businessman Mike Braun in Indiana, while hopes for picking
off Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) in a state Trump won by 43 percentage
points have faded along with GOP confidence in state Attorney General
Patrick Morrisey, the Republican nominee.
President Trump spoke at a fundraiser for a pair of GOP candidates, Rep. Ted Budd and Mark Harris, in Charlotte on Aug. 31.
The developments signaled the most serious peril yet for Republicans’
51-49 majority. Losing the Senate was once an unthinkable prospect as
the GOP looked to gain seats in the midterms, and with the party’s grip
on the House in serious jeopardy, the chamber had been seen as the last
line of defense.
At the start of Trump’s tenure, some Republicans envisioned enough wins
to secure a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats, confident they could
oust many of the 10 Democrats running in states Trump won in 2016. Even a
few weeks ago, Republicans were talking more assuredly about flipping
seats.
But less than two months till the Nov. 6 election, Republicans barely
mention Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — states Trump won —
as opportunities to knock out a Democrat, while McConnell reiterated
that nine seats, plus Texas, were at stake.
“Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana,
West Virginia and Florida. All of them too close to call, and every one
of them like a knife fight in an alley; I mean, just a brawl in every
one of those places,” McConnell told reporters in Louisville.
Republicans could still emerge with an increase in their numbers if GOP
candidates eventually prevail in many of these close races, with
Democrats seriously concerned about Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick
Scott is running about even against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
President Trump said on Sept. 5
that his poll numbers are "through the roof" and that he will not be
defeated in the next presidential election.
The dire warnings also could serve as a wake-up call to GOP donors for the final eight weeks of the campaign.
But for the GOP, simply retaining its majority — which was whittled by a
seat after a stunning upset in the Alabama special election last year —
has looked like a more challenging goal by the day, as controversy
swirls around Trump, the public loses confidence in the president and
GOP candidates are slow to gain traction.
A Washington Post-ABC News national poll conducted in late August found
just 38 percent of voters approved of the job that Trump was doing,
compared with 60 percent who disapproved. His approval rating in April
was 44 percent.
These difficulties have come into sharp focus in Texas, where Cruz is
fighting for political survival against O’Rourke, a rising liberal star
who is raising record-setting sums of cash and attracting large crowds
across a ruby-red state. At the end of June, O’Rourke had close to $14
million cash on hand to Cruz’s $9 million, according to Federal Election
Commission reports.
The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance
between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta
against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump
and McConnell.
The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas.
The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several
expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that
it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds.
“Other campaigns are going to be shorted due to the lackluster nature of
the campaign,” said one White House official, speaking of the Cruz
operation.
McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources
would be there for him, according to people familiar with the talk.
Trump is planning to campaign for Cruz in Texas next month.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC helmed by a former top McConnell
aide, has recently taken a close look at Texas, conducting polling and
summarizing its findings in a memo, according to Chris Pack, a spokesman
for the group.
The organization also announced a seven-figure advertising campaign in
five other states on Tuesday. The ads mostly target Democratic
candidates.
A Cruz-McConnell partnership would have been unimaginable when Cruz called
McConnell a liar on the Senate floor in July 2015 over strategy on
legislation. A Cruz-Trump alliance would have seemed equally implausible
after Cruz labeled Trump a “pathological liar” and declined to endorse
him at the Republican National Convention.
Beyond Trump and McConnell, Cruz angered other Republicans with his
unsuccessful effort to strip funds from the Affordable Care Act in 2013,
which forced a 16-day partial government shutdown, and his support for
outside groups that financed primary challengers to GOP senators.
“They are working together for political expediency,” said Rick Tyler, a
former Cruz spokesman. “These people don’t like each other.”
Cruz spoke about his plight at a luncheon for Republican senators
earlier this summer, according to people familiar with his remarks. One
GOP senator said Cruz sought to convince them that he was facing a“real
race,” citing polls and noting that O’Rourke was amassing cash.
Like others interviewed for this story, the senator spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.
In Texas on Tuesday, Cruz told reporters he was eager to debate O’Rourke
five times. “Typically, sitting officeholders don’t suggest that many
debates. They don’t want to do any debates. But the reason I proposed
that is, I think we owe it to the voters of Texas.”
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), whom Cruz declined to endorse in his 2014
primary, is hosting a fundraiser for Cruz in Washington next month.
Public polls have shown Cruz leading O’Rourke by single digits. David
McIntosh, the president of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that
has long championed Cruz, said donors he has spoken with have been
caught off-guard by the tightness of the contest.
“I think, particularly in Texas, it’s like: ‘Oh yeah, I didn’t think it
would be a big race. Yes, we need to win it. I’ll help you do that.’ And
the same around the country,” McIntosh said.
Speaking to reporters in Louisville on Tuesday, McConnell called the
race “competitive” but said he expected Cruz to prevail. One advantage
for any Republican in the state is the ability of voters to simply cast a
straight-party-ticket ballot.
Despite Trump’s poll numbers, GOP strategists still consider the
president their most effective weapon in the fight to keep control of
the Senate. They say his trips to red states with marquee contests, like
Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana, have provided boosts for
their candidates.
The Senate Leadership Fund’s new Indiana ad begins with footage of Trump
praising Braun and Braun pledging to fight for the president.
Whether the bursts of momentum will last is another question party
leaders are grappling with as they eye the final two months before the
November elections. A steady stream of explosive stories about dissent
within Trump’s administration and special counsel Robert S. Mueller
III’s investigation hover over the fall stretch.
Republican strategists are closely watching suburban areas, where they
fear that anger with Trump could spark a backlash against GOP
candidates. The suburbs loom larger over the battle for the House, with
many rural states set to decide Senate contests. But Senate strategists
are still mindful of the challenges they may pose.
One bright spot for the GOP has been the nomination of Judge Brett M.
Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Republican leaders are confident they
will confirm him this month, giving Trump and his party a landmark
achievement just before voting begins.
Until then, they will have to weather a political storm that has
increasingly stoked private GOP comparisons to 2006, a banner election
year for the Democrats. Amid that perceived danger, every competitive
Senate race is becoming more critical.
Scott Clement and Seung Min Kim contributed to this report.
