New political dimensions in the offing

Jayatilleke de Silva-Tuesday, October 23, 2018

The President has strengthened his security at last. It was several weeks since the story about a conspiracy to assassinate him and the ex-Defence Secretary was reported in the media. That it took so long to strengthen the security of no less a person than the President of the Republic is a sad testimony to the unsatisfactory state of the security situation. The security of the ex-Defence Secretary has not been reported so far. Security of individuals does not and should not depend on their political allegiances or ideological positions.

What should have been done at the outset was to entrust the State investigative and intelligence services to pursue the matter discreetly and professionally untrammeled by any political or other pressures. Our intelligence and investigative authorities have proved their metal more than once.

Instead what resulted was a public debate with every Tom Dick and Harry contributing their two pence worth opinions and judgements. What mattered worse was that the high-ranking Police Officer who was allegedly involved in the conspiracy not only remained at large but was also given a certificate of good conduct by the Minister and even the IGP. Nor did the authorities budge even when a sophisticated fire-arm in his custody disappeared. It was only after the CID and the Government Analyst confirmed some audio recordings as those of that officer that the authorities reluctantly took even preventive disciplinary action.

Clarify matters

The much vocal leader of the National Freedom Front went as far as blaming the whole episode on the intelligence services of neighbouring India and called an Indian national whose name has also come up in the statement of the informant an agent of RAW (the Indian intelligence Agency). He even gave his alleged RAW Identification Number as if its operatives carried an identity card in their pockets or round their necks like the Black Tigers who carried a cyanide capsule round their necks! The fact that the Indian High Commission identified the man and said he was mentally deranged also did not help to clarify matters.

The story came back with a bang when the The Hindu, mass circulation Indian newspaper reported on the testimony of four Cabinet Ministers a story that President Maithripala Sirisena has allegedly told the Cabinet that RAW was behind attempts to assassinate him. It is doubtful whether a prestigious newspaper such as The Hindu would have published the story without reference to relevant Indian authorities. The fact that its Chairman N. Ram stood by the story despite the denial by the President’s office confirms our doubts.

President Sirisena in desperation would have referred to the assassination attempt at the Cabinet meeting and he may have been misquoted or misreported. The President not only denied that he mentioned RAW by name or meant that India is involved both when the Indian High Commissioner met him and when he telephoned Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi. Thus, an unfortunate diplomatic stand-off was averted though a bitter taste would remain in the mouth.

Cabinet meeting

As acknowledged by the President himself political differences in the Cabinet could have persuaded the Ministers to speak to the media about what happened or what purported to have happened at the Cabinet meeting. In any case it was a breach of responsibility. In view of the public acrimony and trading accusations between the two wings of the “united” Government what would have surprised the public was if no such irresponsibility was displayed.

The Joint Opposition did not help either. They made use of the opportunity to promote an unprincipled alliance between the political forces represented by the President and the former President in a desperate attempt to push for a new coalition government with Mahinda as PM under President Sirisena. A very rare possibility given the opposition to such a formation from the TNA and the JVP, leave alone any others. A much likely scenario in such a situation would be the UNP going it alone with or without the assistance of a dozen dissidents from the JO and the official SLFP.

Sri Lanka is in an unenviable strategic position between two regional giants in the Indian Ocean region. With a long history of ethnic, political and cultural relations spanning up to pre-historic times India is our closest neighbour. Probably the two countries would have been a single land mass at one time. Situated midway between the trade routes between East and West Asia, Sri Lanka has had very intimate trade, economic, political and cultural links with China throughout history.

Asian giants

In the context of the geopolitical situation in the present day the significance of maintaining good relations with both Asian giants is of paramount importance. One has also to reckon with efforts taken by the United States of America, Israel, Japan and Australia and India to form an axis of powers counter to China and to some extent Russia.

Given the apparent inclination shown by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe towards this axis Sri Lanka is in the danger of losing its non-aligned position in the world. However, it is the weakening of the economy of the West the dwindling amount of Western economic aid and investments coupled with the rise of China as a world economic power that has compelled the Government to turn to China for aid.

Hence, it would be not only foolish but suicidal to be drawn into any anti-Chinese axis. On the other hand, the best policy would be to revive our non-aligned foreign policy and without being dragged into any side under pressure.

Unfortunately, the division within the Government could assist the external powers, and extreme caution and mature diplomacy is the need of the hour instead of the megaphone diplomacy practiced by some politicians.