Covid-19: Fear, Ignorance Or Who Is Fooling Whom?

By Nalin Fernando –MAY 7, 2020

Nalin Fernando

Sometimes it is common sense and not rocket science that is needed.

COVID-19 emanated from China and was made known to the World on 31 December 2019. In 120 days, it has ratcheted past 3 Million case numbers and 210,000 reported deaths globally. An additional < 56,000 are reported as serious. Over 92% of the 210,000 deaths are along the 30°N – 60°N latitudes/parallel belt of nations – China, Iran, Turkey, Russia, E.U., U.K., U.S.A., etc.. Therefore, they must enlist/ensure robust action, with the uncertainty of the added strain of COVID-19.

When a tsunami, forest fire, storm/cyclone, flood or other major calamity/disaster threatens the World and its people, one of the first things done, is to contain the situation if possible and to ascertain the most probable direction and speed of such. To identify and forewarn/alert the countries in its path of greatest damage/loss of life.

Thus far, a population growth of over 26 Million. A net gain of over 210,000 on average per day. On target to grow by 78 Million in 2020. An addition of over 1% to the global population of 7.6+ Billion.  A net gain in population to that of Sri Lanka, Australia and Malaysia combined. Alternately, it will exceed the population of the least populous 60 countries of the 196 countries in the World.

Originating in the cold clime of Wuhan, it is increasingly clear that the direction of COVID-19’s hardest impact/loss of life and accruing destruction spans the 30°N to 60°N latitudes/ East-West parallel belt of nations. These nations are largely susceptible/prone to the seasonal flu/pneumonia and are subject to a loss of about 500,000 lives. The U.S.A. alone loses over 50,000 lives annually.

The first case of COVID-19, outside of China, was reported in Thailand on 13 January (a tourist). The first COVID-19 related death other than in China was reported in the Philippines on 2 February (a tourist). The WHO after a full 10 weeks had lapsed, declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. After initially stating there is no human to human spread, with growing fear the alarm bells were rung aloud/ Worldwide. The whole World was driven to a frenzy. The stable door was closed, after the horse had bolted.

The WHO failed to step-up and inform the World of the path of highest and or least destruction. Is not the WHO responsible for public health/charged with protecting the people of the World from disease/death? Does it not state, “WHO works worldwide to promote health, keep the world safe, and serve the vulnerable.”? The WHO is generously funded by a majority of the nations in the World.

Making blanket statements/projections on a situation that has raged on for not 30, 60, 90 but 100+ days sans giving it proper direction, is not good. It does not help or do any favour, in fact it metes out injustice to the least prone/affected nations. Does not WHO maintain over 150 country offices with country heads across 6 regions of the World costing US $100’s of Millions? Blanket statements cautioning the World, bordering on fear mongering, is of no relief.

Alarm bells and hypothetical/alleged death projections are randomly/arbitrarily spewed,  even for those countries least prone/affected. Countries who had cautiously/watchfully braved and even fronted the challenge with remarkable resilience/good fortitude capitulated. Even nations least prone/affected decided to go on their knees and buckled under pressure/fear.

Hang the economy. Arresting the virus spread became the new mantra/urgency. Even countries who earlier remained open to tourists (even from the nation considered the epicentre, bearing the brunt of COVID-19), then after 10 weeks put up shutters and went on to take extreme measures.

Given the proximity from China, ASEAN to a great extent and even some SAARC countries were attractive destinations for Chinese tourists.

These South & South East Asian countries, with 2.5+ Billion people, or 33% of the global population, had an influx of Chinese tourists/ visitors (some  also have large immigrant/ migrant populations). Fortunately/Sparingly, a majority reported zero to single digit deaths and others a few 100’s. Even after 120 days, a low % of deaths from COVID-19, not 1%, not 0.1%, not 0.001% but 0.000_% of deaths, as a  % of the population. A collective total of less than 3,300 deaths. Almost all of these countries had attracted over 10,000 / 100,000 or nearly 1 Million Chinese tourists/ visitors each, in the first 60 days.

Many of the least prone/affected countries, possibly guided by the WHO declaration/ warning of a global pandemic on 11 March 2020, combined with a heightened fear/concern to protect its people or for reasons best known to their leaders, belatedly took on and even ramped-up extreme measures, imposing lockdown/curfew. Timely suspension of passenger flights from the worst affected countries, pushed back against earlier by the WHO/if recommended early, would have sufficed.

A reality check, keeping things in perspective, is needed. Gain heart/strength and recalibrate an exit strategy. Safeguard/protect and alleviate the suffering of the masses/most vulnerable, placed in such wilfully or by default. Commanding – fear, ignorance and all those who are fooling/playing games to stop/step aside. It is fool-hardy for 140+ nations with 1 or < 1 death per day on average thus far (1 to 120 deaths in 120 days), to continue by offering their economies on the altar of COVID-19 by the weeks/months, in an alleged expectation to save a few lives, if at all. Doesn’t the virus/SARS-CoV-2 which causes COVID-19, spread relatively fast, within 2 to 4 weeks? What is the cost of economic clampdown per day? When economic lockdown/curfew for days, weeks and months, how many deaths does it ensure?

Is it not better to take a sharp look with regard to each nation/region? Consider not only the health care system capacity in relation to the population but take a more holistic approach, with the benefit of experience as to what exactly transpired when countries were open for business during the most critical early phase of 2 to 10 weeks. The temperature/climatic condition, geographical location, economic situation, etc., too must be factored. If done, many will deem it possible/necessary to open up forthwith/ within a week. Yes, certain controls – wash hands, wear a face mask and social distance. Test those with symptoms, contact trace, quarantine and provide medical support as best possible, if and when needed. Each day delayed is tightening the noose for those low income nations, least prone/affected.

In the island of Sri Lanka the CSE has suspended trading for well over a month. Not the best strategy/signal if to take the country forward, particularly seeking FDIs.

As against reported case numbers, a focus on the death count is more prudent, as it is a more reliable indicator and highlights the stark reality in regard to COVID-19.

120 days of COVID-19 and 102 countries reported a total of 17 or less deaths (1 or < 1 death per week on average for the first 17 weeks), including over 25 countries with zero (0) deaths – Vietnam, Cambodia, Nepal, Mozambique, Madagascar etc.. Another 45 countries reported 1 death or less on average per day. Altogether, 147 countries with 1 or < 1 death per day on average for the first 120 days.

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