Rhetoric and reality

Editorial-January 23, 2016, 8:35 am 

President Maithripala Sirisena has told BBC (Sinhala Service) that foreign judges and prosecutors should not be involved in a probe into Sri Lanka’s alleged war crimes. There is no need to ‘import’ specialists, he has said, stressing, "I will never agree to international involvement in this matter’. He is of the view that Sri Lanka has enough experts. Interestingly, his ‘bold’ statement virtually coincided with an agreement his government and the EU reached on implementing the UNHRC resolution on Sri Lanka FULLY and speedily!

The UNHRC resolution, co-sponsored by Sri Lanka in Oct. 2015, calls for, among other things, a special judicial mechanism to probe the alleged war crimes, with the participation of Commonwealth and foreign judges, prosecutors and investigators.

The EU and the Sri Lankan government said, in a joint statement issued on Thursday: "Both sides recognised the full implementation of the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) resolution of October 2015 as a priority." (Emphasis added) Thus, what President Sirisena has told BBC Sinhala Service for the consumption of a local audience is at variance with the thrust of his government’s latest agreement with the so-called international community.

The current SLFP leadership is caught up in a political whirlpool. The political marriage of convenience between the UNP and the SLFP is not going to last indefinitely and another election is on the horizon. At the next local government polls, President Sirisena will have to lead the SLFP and/or UPFA campaign against the UNP and that will be the moment of truth for him. That is a contest he cannot afford to lose. His political future hinges on the electoral performance of the SLFP/UPFA, which controlled most of the local government bodies previously. Former President Mahinda Rajapaksa will not get involved in the next election campaign of the SLFP/UPFA and the threat of a new political front consisting of SLFP and UPFA dissidents being forged is real. Odds are stacked against the new SLFP leaders who won’t be able to scapegoat anyone this time around. If they fail to steer the SLFP/UPFA to victory, they will face more intra-party resistance and a victorious UNP will cease to be subservient and, perhaps, even turn hostile towards the SLFPers within its ranks.

President Sirisena cannot go on postponing LG polls till the cows come home. He will have to face them sooner or later and depend on the SLFP’s traditional support base. Obviously, he won’t have the backing of his newfound allies who threw in their lot with him at the last presidential election. He has to win over the people who look askance at the government undertaking to hold a war crimes probe, local or otherwise, which they consider part of a witch hunt against those who had the courage to eliminate terrorism. Unfulfiled election pledges are also dogging him.

President Sirisena’s interview with BBC may have warmed the cockles of many a heart in this country, but the fact remains that the government has crossed the Rubicon, having co-sponsored the UNHRC resolution and reaffirmed its commitment, more than once––as it did on Thursday again––to the full implementation of the UNHRC resolution. There seems to be no way President Sirisena or anyone else can shut out foreign judges, prosecutors and investigators.

The UNP will also be counting the cost of the war crimes probe to be launched besides the unfulfilled election pledges. The new front being formed by SLFP/UPFA dissidents will make itself attractive to those who are opposed to the manner in which the government is handling the issue of alleged war crimes. The JVP has blotted its copybook thanks to its rapport with the UNP.

The only way the government may be able to conduct a war crimes probe sans foreign participation therein is to explain to their western allies, especially the US and the UK, their political difficulties and warn of the possibility of their ‘pro-Chinese’ rivals making most of their UNHRC related woes to stage a comeback. Else, it will be a case of GoSL proposing and Uncle Sam disposing.