Hope and pray for better governance

January 31, 2020, 8:09 pm

The goals of progress that were the key expectations of the call and movement for freedom have been pushed aside as we approach the 72nd anniversary  of Independence from colonial rule.

The celebrations on February 4 will be hugely affected by the coronavirus that has begun straddling the world, and the call for face masks gets louder than for the reduction in food prices in Sri Lanka.

Is this new coronavirus a real threat in a country trapped in the fever and deaths from Dengue in the past several years? Not very likely. From what we have read recently, what threatens Sri Lanka more is the Corona (or Crown) Maga Maru Virus - the Road Death Virus that takes eight lives, and maims double that number for life, every day. It is the crowning disaster in Sri Lanka that is wholly ignored by so-called national leaders, who must be delighted by the rise of the coronavirus from Wuhan, China; topping the news world, pushing away those recorded phone calls, and moving minds away from the Bond Scam, whether Ranil/Mahendran or Mahinda/Cabraal or both.

What do we have to celebrate on Feb 4 this year, as the country moves towards a general election, with a call for a 2/3rd majority in parliament by the lotus bud power handlers, and an opposition that is making a grand display of divisive politics? 

The rise of democracy was seen from nearly a decade before independence, with elections to the State Council, but 72 years after freedom we see a huge decline in the democratic process, largely enabled  by the 2/3rd electoral and manipulated majority in parliament. The first 2/3rd majority government of Sirimavo Bandaranaike, which brought the first Republic, and made Buddhism the State Religion, also extended the term of its parliamentary life by two years, and saw more than 10,000  killed in handling the first JVP uprising. It certainly was not the stuff of good Buddhist governance.

The next big 5/6th majority of the JR Jayewardene government brought the Executive Presidency which was a disaster for democracy. It stopped the cross-over of MPs, did away with by-elections, increased the number of MPs to 225, and brought in the district-wise proportional representation in elections doing away with the choice of candidates by electorates. Every government that was elected after JRJ in 1977 made pledges to do away with the Executive Presidency, but failed to do so in substance.

The next two-thirds was not from an election, but was politically manipulated by Mahinda Rajapaksa who won the 1990 polls with a huge majority, but not enough for one’s narrow political goals. A 2/3rd majority obtained by the offer of State Office in the Cabinet, as well as monetary and other benefits, saw the 18th Amendment. It was  the denial and repudiation of democracy,which removed the two-term limit to a president, extending it for unlimited terms, and had exploitative control over the Constitutional Council and the heads of key State Commissions such as the Public Service, Human Rights, Judicial Service and the Police.

This is the disastrous record of the 2/3rd majority in the democratic process in this country. Yet, we are moving towards a general election, with the current president, whose elder brother President had repeatedly called for the abolition of that office, now calling for a 2/3rd majority to change the Constitution, mainly the 19th Amendment, which gives more powers to the parliament than to the president.   

The 19th Amendment does have shortcomings and failures. We do not need a huge Cabinet for a National Government, the powers or limitations of the presidency must be better explained and laid down, and the parliamentary process further strengthened. Let the people know these needed changes and vote for them in parliament, where a 2/3rd is easily possible as obtained for both the 17th and 19th Amendments, by one government that had a shaky majority (17A) and another that was a minority government (19A). These were genuine victories of freedom and democracy.

Where are we heading in this 72nd year of Independence? President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had much to say of the kurakkan-coloured "Sataka"  that his paternal uncle wore in his campaign for election to the State Council. It was forgotten or ignored for more than three decades, till Mahinda Rajapaksa saw its political benefit. Are we to move to a new trend of "Sataka" politics as the stuff  of family politics, where the Deep South or Medamulana prevails over the rest of the island?

Is the rise of Sinhala-Buddhist politics to be the material of the next decade of freedom in a country that has forgotten that for nearly half of its 72 years of freedom, it has been a hugely bloody nation?  Are we to forget the realities of the 30-year terror and bloodshed of the LTTE, the two bloody uprisings of the JVP, and the communal violence of 1957 and 1983?

There are increasing numbers of opinion builders who are keen to see the provisions of the Kandyan Convention brought into the practice of governance, than the systems and governance handed over by the colonial rulers. Is this the search for freedom and democracy?  There is also a rise in thinking that the yellow robe of the Sangha is the ideal substance of government policy and practice, and should not be confined to the vinaya or discipline of the preachers of Buddhism.

Let us listen to the National Anthem sung - in one or both official languages - on February 4, and think deeper of the meaning of those lyrics by Ananda Samarakoon, and not feel as he did in being pushed to suicide. Let "Namo, Namo’ prevail in our deepest honour to our Motherland, with the hope for better governance in the years to come.   

Government Proposes Secretive Private Higher Education Push In The Guise Of Free Education

FEBRUARY 1, 2020

A three-pronged initiative is underway under the aegis of the newly-elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to liberalise higher education by introducing private universities and restructuring State-led higher education under Rajapaksa’s manifesto – 2020-25 ‘Vision for Prosperity’ Medium Term Development Strategy Framework. 

Minister of Information and Communications Technology, Higher Education, Technology and Innovations Dr. Bandula Gunawardane has presented three separate three Cabinet Memoranda (read here, here and here), bearing reference nos HETI/HE/UD/2019/28, 29 and 30 proposing the setting up of ‘Charter Universities’, restructuring universities and university institutions and the establishment of a ‘Free Education Investment Zone’ all dated 24 December, 2019.

Although expansion of both state-led and private education is much needed at this hour the manner in which it so discreetly and secretively without proper consultation with the stakeholders and going against the very promise of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna’s election of pledges of not allowing privatization of any sectors; has earned the disappointment of many university academics and higher education professionals.    

Charter Universities 

The Cabinet Memoranda no 28 proposes the introduction of ‘Charter University’ concept to Sri Lanka which will see  private-led ‘Not for Profit’ with both the state patronage and the contribution of ‘private philanthropists’. 

The Ministry has identified the following  institutions:- 

1. National School of Business Management (NSBM) Green University – Pitipana, Homagama (Established under Companies Act) 

2. University of Vocational Technology (UNIVOTEC) (Affiliated to the Ministry) 

3. Sri Lanka Technology Campus (SLTC) – Meepe, Padukka (Affiliated to the Sri Lanka Telecom PLC) 

4. Nāgānanda International Institute for Buddhist Studies (NIIBS)- Manelwatte, Kelaniya

5. Sri Lanka International Buddhist Academy (SIBA) – Pallekele, Kandy (Affiliated to the Temple of the Tooth) 

The Minister laments that although these higher education institutions has been imparting courses under high standards with powers to confer degrees but has not been recognized as fully-fledged degree awarding institutions by the University Grants Council. 

However the Memorandum notes that these institution too do not to be incorporated into the UGC system as it requires admission of students according to the Z Score and complying with the rigid regulatory regime of the UGC.  

However the institutions must comply with the conditions that they must be continued with the objective of not for profit and any extra revenues earned be only invested for educational development, that all courses must be approved by the UGC, that all education staff qualification must be in consistent with UGC regulations, all courses and facilities be marinated on par with international standards and that all Chartered Universities must include the Secretary  of the Ministry of Higher Education or his representative in its Board. 

Any Chartered University found to be in breach of any of these conditions and is not maintained properly after a grace period of two years may  be subjected to the removal of its Chartered status by the Minister. 

Restructuring of Universities

In a bid to increase university admissions, Ministry has proposed the increase of student admissions by at least by 25% entitling 7,500 more openings in the university system without incurring any additional costs to the Treasury with capital or staff recruitments but by optimizing existing human and physical resources. 

The Memorandum proposes that with no new physical investments and with marginal increase in human resources upgrade Sri Lanka Forestry Institute (Nuwara Eliya), Institute of Surveying and Mapping (Diyatalawa), National Institute of Social Development, Sri Lanka Institute of Nanotechnology (SLINTEC Academy- Pitipana), Industrial Technology Institute (ITI) of Sri Lanka and the Association of Accounting Technicians of Sri Lanka  (AATSL) be upgraded into universities under the purview of the Ministry of Higher Education, creating openings for 2,500 additional students. 

The Ministry has also proposed that all state-owned higher education institutions and technical colleges that award NVQ level 6 be upgraded into University Colleges with existing infrastructure and without any additional burden to the Treasury but only with a new salary scheme on par with University Colleges. 

One of the most drastic change proposed by the Memorandum is the formulation of an affordable fee-levying structure for University Colleges to meet the additional financial requirements. 

A Cabinet-appointed Expert Committee headed by the Ministry Secretary and comprising UGC Chairman, Vice Chancellors of the Sri Jayawardenepura, Colombo, Moratuwa, Ruhuna Universities and NSBM Campus, presidents of professionals union, SLASSCOM (Sri Lanka Association for Software and Services Companies), Director General of Commerce, Prof. Chandra Embuldeniya and competent authorities appointed for universities and  university colleges has been formed to study and report within six weeks to the Cabinet of Ministers on the new courses to be introduced, standards and qualitative regulatory mechanisms to be reintroduced; has also ben proposed.         

Establishment of a ‘Free Education Investment Zone’ 

The Minister has proposed the setting up of a ‘Free Education Investment Zone’ in order to transform Sri Lanka into the international educational hub in South Asia. 

The Memorandum states that the Minister believes that with the completion of Colombo International Finance Center at Port City and the proposed mega economic zone at Hambantota there arose a great need to minimize brain drain.  

As such the ‘Free Education Investment Zone’ would be set up on the 700 acre land in Millewa, Horana acquired by the Urban Development Zone for an Industrial Zone  but stalled due to public protests closely following the special investment attracting scheme followed by Malaysia when setting up the  ‘Special Free Education Investment Zone’.

However it must be noted that Malaysia does not have a ‘Special Free Education Investment Zone’ but a Special Economic Zone and high-technology business district under the National ICT Initiative of Malaysia formerly called the Multimedia Super Corridor but renamed Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC).

Criticism 

However due to lack of consultations with stakeholders and due to its highly secretive nature education experts and academics are much skeptical at these initiatives.  

“The three cabinet papers propose drastic changes to higher education. These changes occur without public consultation and without a proper analysis of their consequences,” claimed an expert on grounds of anonymity. 

“These are as follows:

1. The establishment of ‘charter universities’, which will give degree awarding status to non-profit private institutions.

2. The establishment of a ‘free education investment zone’, which will cater primarily to foreign students and which promises to be heavily subsidized through the national budget in 2020. 

3. To increase university intake by 25% and to elevate institutes awarding qualifications of NVQ level 6 and higher into degree awarding university colleges. These activities will not include any form of government but private investments.”

“We have many questions regarding the above proposals. 

“Although the government proposes the introduction of the ‘Charter Universities’, we are not the US (United States of America), where non-profit universities operate with large endowments. The question then becomes who will fund these institutions. Because of their non-profit status, global trends indicate that they are easier for governments to subsidize than private for profit institutions. In fact, the World Bank, which has a substantial hold over our education system today, openly advocates such a system. Generally, such initiatives result in the already limited State resources to education to be distributed across private and public institutions. The outcome is a depletion of funds for public institutions to operate. In fact, these trends have already begun. 

Private personal funds will also be used to run these institutions. Today existing degree programmes at SLIIT (Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology) and the Kothalawala Defence University (KDU), both developed through heavy subsidy, run between LKR 500,000.00 and 2,000,000.00. To cover these costs, our already debt burdened households are now being given credit facilities for education by banks. Globally education related debt has created heartache in countries such as the US and Canada. Can we afford additional debt? Can we not learn from the stories from other countries? Will charter universities necessarily address the educational aspirations of the public? Maybe, but only if one is rich. The outcome will sadly be to further stratify our society based on class.” 

“With regards to the setting up of the ‘Free Educational Investment Zone’, the use of the term ‘Free’ in the ‘free educational investment zone’ uses something we cherish very much for purposes of exploitation. Firstly, like a free trade zone, the ‘free’ educational investment zone will ensure that regulations that gave birth to the free education system of this country, will not be applicable in this zone. It ignores the epic struggle by the ordinary people of this country to create our cherished system of education. We recognize that our system of education needs reforms. These reforms should however benefit our public. It should not be a means through which the private sector and the global financial system exploits the hopes and aspirations of the Sri Lankan people. The State promises to heavily invest in this zone. One must ask, at what cost? Other than the financial investments required, they are likely to accelerate the brain drain from state institutions just as Charter universities are likely to.” 

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Climate change: Worst emissions scenario 'exceedingly unlikely'

The falling cost of renewable energy is making the most extreme emissions scenario much less likely

By Matt McGrath-29 January 2020

The worst-case scenario for emissions of CO2 this century is no longer plausible, say researchers.

Referred to as "business as usual", the scenario assumes a 500% increase in the use of coal, which is now considered unlikely.

Climate models suggest that this level of carbon could see warming of up to 6C by 2100, with severe impacts.

Researchers say that on current trends, a rise in temperatures of around 3C is far more likely.

How has this confusion come about?

About 10 years ago, ahead of the fifth assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), researchers developed four different scenarios to describe how carbon emissions might change over the rest of this century.

One of these clumsily titled "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs), was called RCP8.5 and it was intended to show the impact of very high emissions consistent with a five fold increase in the use of coal and virtually no policies to limit CO2 emissions.

RCP8.5 was first developed by energy researchers to help with their modelling. According to the authors of this paper, they didn't do a good job of communicating the limitations of this approach to climate scientists who wanted to use it to see what would happen with temperatures.

Image copyright

Image captionCoal fired power stations like this one in Schkopau, Germany face an uncertain future

Rather than being seen as something that only had a 3% chance of becoming reality, it became known as the "business-as-usual" scenario, by climate scientists and has been used in more than 2,000 research papers since.

"What we're arguing is that we've been misusing the worst climate change scenario," said author Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute in California.

"Obviously, a lot has changed since 2005 or so when the scenario was created. A lot of clean technology prices have fallen, by factors of five, while global coal use peaked in 2013. And it's been flat since then."

"So what originally was a sort of worst-case (scenario) with less than 10% chance of happening is today, exceedingly unlikely."

Does this mean that climate scientists have been exaggerating the threat?

This is more about scientific assumptions added to a communications cock-up.

Very few scientists realised that RCP8.5 was originally a 90th percentile outcome, not a most likely or business-as-usual outcome. They assumed too much, when they should perhaps have checked, say the authors of the review.

"At the end of the day, scientists have to take responsibility for what they choose as input data, and there should be a degree of due diligence," said Glen Peters, from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway.

"How many of your average climate scientists know the nuances of RCP8.5? It would certainly be interesting to know."

The media, taking their steer from scientists, have tended to use the highest impacts when reporting on projections based on emissions scenarios.

"That's not to say that these highest-end impacts are impossible to happen, but it is not business-as-usual. And that's the point we're really trying to make in this piece."

Does this mean that our projections about future temperature rises are wrong?

Not necessarily.

This new work questions the chances of very high future emissions because renewable energy is now much cheaper, and competing with coal.

So rather than a world that warms by 6C, it should mean that the world will warm by around 3C based on current policies that countries have signed up to.

The melting of Arctic ice could speed up the warming of the world

Image copyrightImage captionThe melting of Arctic ice could speed up the warming of the world

However, the authors are at pains to point out that the lower temperatures aren't guaranteed.

That's because scientists are still uncertain as to how sensitive temperatures are to CO2. New models are being used for the next set of major projections due from the IPCC next year. Those models are said to show that temperatures are more sensitive to CO2 than previously thought.

There is also the question of climate feedbacks. Although emissions from human activities might level off over this century, warming could see more permafrost melt which will push more methane and CO2 into the air, putting upward pressure on temperatures.

"I don't think we can rule out a world of four degrees or above, because of these uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the uncertainties in carbon cycle feedbacks," said Zeke Hausfather.

"So even under a lower emission scenario, you could have higher sea level rise, higher warming impacts, if climate sensitivity ends up being on the high end."

"If you think of climate as a problem of risk management, you don't necessarily just want to plan for the most likely outcome, You want to plan for sort of the tail risk, the relatively low probability but high impact scenario."

What does a world that warms by 3C look like?

The authors point out that a 3C rise would be a global average and that many parts of the world such as the Arctic would likely warm by much more than that.

Researchers say that wildfires, like the recent ones in Australia, are more likely in a world that warms by 3C

Image copyright

"You having a world where the coral reefs are largely wiped out at three degrees warming, you're having a world where combined with deforestation, there's a real high risk of the Amazon rainforest turning into more of a savannah type ecosystem in the long run," said Zeke Hausfather.

Experts believe that at 3C, the Arctic sea-ice would be mostly gone in the summer with devastating consequences. It could cause large scale melting of permafrost, It could destabilise roads and houses in the far north and there's increasing damage to crop yields.

"There's a lot of real impacts with three degrees that we can't sweep away. And there's a non-trivial risk that climate sensitivity is four degrees instead of three."

Does this review mean human extinction is less likely from climate change?

Many people have concerns that if strong action isn't taken to curb emissions, then the cumulative effect of all the impacts of climate change could threaten the future of humanity.

"There's never been that much evidence that climate change is going to literally cause the extinction of the human race," said Zeke Hausfather.

"But there's a lot of things in the world that are less bad than literal extinction that we want to avoid at all costs."

Is this good news in some ways?

Yes - it shows that even the limited attempts to cut carbon that the world has adopted to date are having an impact and the worst emissions scenarios are no longer realistic.

While a world that warms by 3C is a disaster, the progress that's been made should encourage people to aim for higher targets to try to keep the world to 1.5C of warming, which science suggests is a much safer threshold.

"In many ways this is a success story. It's not where we want to get it's not meeting the Paris agreement targets of limiting warming to below 2C, but the world has taken some action and clean energy has gotten cheaper," said Zeke Hausfather.

"And as that happens, we're necessarily going to move away from some of the worst case possible outcomes. The more climate policies countries enact, the more we're going to sort of head toward a world of two to three degrees warming, hopefully on the two side, and hopefully below two, but that requires a lot more political effort."

The commentary has been published in the journal Nature.

Follow Matt on Twitter.

Coronavirus, Panic and Racism

• Media hype can be attributed to China’s importance in world politics 
• Coronavirus stokes unwarranted paranoia and irrational fear psychosis 
• Newfound epidemic has claimed at least 170 lives in China alone  
• Term ‘Coronavirus’ alien to a majority of Sri Lankans
• Thinly-veiled racism and xenophobia rearing their heads

31 January 2020 

The media hype worldwide - created on newfound epidemic ‘2019-CoV’ and known to Sri Lankans as Coronavirus - seems to have both negative and positive impacts. Almost all local and international media outlets including CNN, BBC, ABC, DW, NHK, Al-Jazeera and CNA give prominence to the new epidemic over other important issues.   

It is notable that Coronavirus (2019-CoV), which is said to have a lesser fatality rate of 15 per cent, has drawn an extremely-high interest of the world than Ebola virus did when it spread in some African countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea a few years ago, with an alarming 50-90 per cent fatality rate. 

Nevertheless, the whole world seems to have panicked about the new epidemic now. This could be attributed to the higher susceptibility of the Chinese epidemic being spread to other countries due to the hundreds of thousands of people travelling daily through the large number of airports in China, it being an air-borne disease - an easy means of transmission - and thereby its rapidity of spread.   

Despite the World Health Organisation (WHO) having been alerted on the new epidemic on December 31, the number of people infected by the Coronavirus outbreak has risen to over 7,700 in China alone, reports last Thursday said. The virus originating from China’s Wuhan city and temporarily been named by WHO as ‘2019-nCoV’ had claimed the lives of 170 people in the country by yesterday.   

The media hype could also be attributed to China’s importance in world politics. The positive side of the massive media coverage of the disease is that it enlightens people of the threat and warns them to be vigilant and to take precautionary measures. However, it also frightens people unnecessarily and disproportionately to the real threat.

Even in Sri Lana, a trend of using face-masks has catapulted the prices of various types of face-masks in such a proportion that the government had to announce controlled prices on them. However, last Wednesday, several doctors including Health Services Director General Dr. Anil Jasinghe pointed out that there was no such situation in the country where people had to wear face-masks.   

The panic is such that people had not come forward to help a female student at a school in Kandy who had collapsed and according to media reports, the driver of an ambulance had to carry her to his vehicle all alone. Later, it was revealed that she had fainted due to starvation. The fear among teachers and her fellow students might be the result of them having seen a Chinese national over TV collapsing suddenly who had later been diagnosed with the virus. People who habitually rush to help others had refrained initially from doing so when a man collapsed at World Trade Centre in Colombo the other day.   

As in the case of the 2004 tsunami, the term ‘Coronavirus’ is alien to a majority of Sri Lankans despite people afflicted by it in other countries having known about it for years. According to Wikipedia, the online encyclopaedia, “Coronaviruses are a group of viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans, the viruses cause respiratory infections which are typically mild including the common cold but rarer forms like SARS and MERS can be lethal. In cows and pigs they may cause diarrhoea while in chickens they can cause an upper respiratory disease. There are no vaccines or antiviral drugs that are approved for prevention or treatment.

The name ‘Coronavirus’ is derived from the Latin corona, meaning crown or halo, which refers to the characteristic appearance of the virus particles (virions): they have a fringe reminiscent of a royal crown or of the solar corona.
Coronaviruses were discovered in the 1960s, the earliest ones discovered were infectious bronchitis virus in chickens and two viruses from the nasal cavities of human patients with the common cold that were subsequently named human Coronavirus 229E and human Coronavirus OC43. Other members of this family have since been identified including SARS-CoV in 2003, HCoV NL63 in 2004, HKU1 in 2005, MERS-CoV in 2012 and 2019-nCoV in 2019; most of these have been involved in serious respiratory tract infections.” 

If we were to be panicked, one can find so many reasons other than a single Chinese female having toured many parts of the country before being diagnosed with the virus at the Infectious Diseases Hospital (IDH) in Colombo. She had been in an airtight flight from China to Colombo with hundreds of other passengers among whom there would have been Sri Lankans. Hundreds of people might have arrived in Sri Lanka from China - including from the city of Wuhan - before precautionary measures were taken. Since the symptoms are said to be known 14 days after the infection, people carrying the virus might have visited Sri Lanka via other countries as well. Hence, vigilance and precaution is needed, but not the panic as only one positive case has been reported so far.   

Many people have a habit of attempting to justify and prove their ideologies and politics using everything under the sun. They are now using the new epidemic in China. Some social media users had attributed the disease to certain food habits of Chinese people which they desist or hate. Some people belonging to the Muslim community had described the situation as a punishment by God for the ill-treatment of Uighur Muslims at the hands of Chinese authorities.   

Chinese food habits or those of any other community for that matter are not new phenomena. If they had caused the epidemic, the outbreak should have occurred centuries ago and lasted to date. On the other hand, despite the ill-treatment of Uighur Muslims by Chinese authorities being a fact, one cannot conclude the epidemic as a punishment as there is no assurance of some other country not being hit most ultimately by the virus. Besides, the MERS epidemic outbreak in 2012 happened mainly in the Middle East.   

There seems a veiled racism as well in these comments. There are reports that people avoid meeting Chinese people and also they are not welcomed at some shops as happened to Muslims subsequent to the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. However, as argued above, there is a possibility of thousands of Sri Lankans having been exposed to Coronavirus by now.   

A newspaper in Denmark has earned the wrath of the Chinese Government and its people after publishing a cartoon depicting the Chinese nation as viruses. China’s embassy in Denmark had demanded an apology from daily Jyllands-Posten after it published a cartoon of the Chinese flag with its five yellow stars represented by Coronavirus particles.   

In a statement, the embassy in Copenhagen said Jyllands-Posten and Danish artist Niels Bo Bojesen should apologise to Chinese people for publishing the image captioned “Coronavirus” in last Monday’s edition of the paper. “Without any sympathy and empathy, it has crossed the bottom line of civilised society and the ethical boundary of free speech and offends human conscience,” the embassy said last Tuesday.   

However, the newspaper refused to apologise. “We cannot apologise for something that we don’t believe is wrong,” Editor-in-chief of the paper Jacob Nybroe told Ritzau. “We have no intention of demeaning or mocking the situation in China and we don’t think the drawing does that,” Nybroe had said. It must be remembered that in 2005, Jyllands-Posten published satirical drawings of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) that caused outrage across the 
Muslim world.   

Disasters may befall any person or community or country and it is not an occasion to rejoice or mock. The very new Coronavirus might end up in Denmark or any other country, causing more severe havoc. Sri Lanka was one of the worst hit countries by the 2004 tsunami. Bangladesh has been facing multiple natural disasters annually. 

Gobal Health: Who Officially Declares Coronavirus A “Global Health Emergency”

In designating 2019-nCoV a global public health emergency, WHO officials took into account the evidence that the rate of human-to-human transmission outside China is increasing.

 

by James Cogan-2020-01-31

 

The World Health Organisation (WHO) yesterday decided to formally declare the outbreak of 2019-nCoV, the new coronavirus first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan, as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).” The PHEIC classification was only established by WHO in 2005 following the 2002–2003 SARS pandemic. It has been declared on five occasions since, in response to the 2009 Swine Flu, the outbreaks in 2014 of Ebola and polio, the 2016 Zika virus and the 2019 resurgence of Ebola in central Africa.

 

Chinese authorities reported last night that the number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV has reached at least 8,100. The virus has spread from its source in Wuhan across mainland China and now around the world. At least 100 cases—predominantly people either from or who had visited Wuhan—have been diagnosed in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, South Korea, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, France, Finland, the United States and Canada. Dozens of suspected cases are under investigation in other countries.

 

The number of deaths directly linked to 2019-nCoV infection, which can lead to severe pneumonia that cannot be treated with antibiotics or existing antiviral drugs, currently stands at 171. All of the fatalities were in China and, according to Chinese authorities, were mainly older people with existing medical conditions. The fatality rate, at around 2.7 percent, is low in comparison with other coronavirus outbreaks such as SARS and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). As with any virus, there is the possibility that as it spreads it could mutate into a far more deadly strain.

 

Like SARS and MERS, 2019-nCoV is an animal virus that has migrated to infect humans, most likely originating in either bats or snakes. At present, scientists postulate that it is being transmitted between people via respiratory “droplets” spread by coughing, so most likely can only be contracted if someone is in close and protracted proximity to an infected individual. By way of comparison, the common influenza virus, which spreads between people far more easily, has infected at least 15 million Americans and caused at least 8,200 deaths just in the 2019–2020 flu season.

 

In designating 2019-nCoV a global public health emergency, WHO officials took into account the evidence that the rate of human-to-human transmission outside China is increasing.

 

WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference last night: “The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China, but because of what is happening in other countries. Our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems, and which are ill-prepared to deal with it.”

 

The media has generally interpreted this statement as a reference to so-called underdeveloped or “Third World” countries. In fact, the United States—where there is now one reported case of human-to-human transmission in Chicago—would be high on the list of concern. Tens of millions of people live in extreme poverty and lack any health insurance, while the public health system is drastically under-resourced. If several thousand patients sought treatment at the same time for severe respiratory illnesses in a major American city, it would completely overwhelm the medical system. A comparable situation exists in virtually all the so-called “advanced” capitalist countries.

 

The dangers are heightened by the likelihood that a vaccine for 2019-nCoV will not be developed for at least four months and would most likely not be available for roll-out to the general population for well over a year. One factor in the time length is the lack of collaboration between dozens of rival medical clinics internationally, which will be striving to patent a vaccine so their corporate owners can profit from its sale.

 

The international unpreparedness for serious pandemics—in terms of adequate medical facilities, dedicated quarantine wards and coordinated research teams—is reflected in the panicked responses to the coronavirus being announced around the world.

 

In China, health workers have reportedly had to deal with insufficient testing kits to diagnose the virus and shortages of protective suits to guarantee their own safety. In one Wuhan hospital, a nurse told CNN that at least 30 of the 500 staff are now infected. Hospitals have run out of beds and are telling people to go home unless they are displaying severe symptoms. Chinese authorities have rushed 1,800 additional doctors and specialists to Hubei province, while two temporary hospitals with a combined 2,300 beds are being rapidly built to cope with the number of patients.

 

Since January 22, the Chinese government has attempted to seal off Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province to try and stem the spread the virus. In total, some 50 million people are living under travel bans. As with all such blanket measures, however, those with wealth and power easily circumvent them. Moreover, 2019-nCoV was first identified in late December. By the time the quarantine was declared, as many as five million people had moved in and out of Wuhan, the largest city in central China, including thousands who travelled overseas. A factor in the spread of the virus was that people travelled elsewhere in China because they could not get treatment in the city.

 

Long after the virus has well and truly gone global, most airlines have now suspended or reduced their flights in and out of China. Airports internationally have erected elaborate screening measures to try and identify potential carriers of the virus, though infected people do not exhibit any symptoms for as long as seven to 10 days. Russia and North Korea have sealed their borders with China. In Italy, panicked authorities refused to allow thousands of people aboard a cruise ship to disembark due to suspicion that two passengers may have been infected. Test results came back negative.

 

A number of countries have organised flights to evacuate their citizens from the Wuhan region, but then placed them in quarantine in often substandard conditions. The Australian government stands out for its callousness. It is seeking to charge hundreds of Australian nationals $1,000 to be evacuated and intends to isolate them on the remote Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean and house them in the bleak facilities built to imprison so-called illegal refugees.

 

Amid the geostrategic and economic tensions between the United States and its allies with China, various demagogues are seizing the opportunity presented by the virus outbreak to stoke anti-Chinese xenophobia and sing nationalist praise of their own countries.

 

The Washington Post lambasted the Chinese government in the headline of an editorial yesterday for having “put everyone at risk” due to the lag between when the virus was identified and health warnings and drastic quarantine measures were announced. The Post implied that in the US, the “free press” would have ensured that information emerged more quickly. In fact, as has emerged time and again, the major American newspapers and networks collaborate just as intimately to censor information, on behalf of the government and the corporate ruling class, as their Chinese counterparts.

 

The Rupert Murdoch-owned Australian published today a particularly obscene piece by right-wing academic Salvatore Babones. He implied that the reason why coronaviruses have migrated from animals to humans in China and not in Australia was because Chinese—due to Confucianism and “communism”—relied on the state and did not “self-organise” to ensure sanitation and public health.

 

Babone wrote: “Australian civil society accomplishes what 100 million bureaucrats cannot—it ensures good public health by promoting safe practices broadly, across every niche of the economy, nearly all of the time.”

 

The utter stupidity of such nationalist assertions can be seen in the way that decades of Australian government indifference and inaction have left the population totally unprepared for the devastating impact of climate-change linked droughts, fires and floods. People have had to “self-organise” in fire-affected towns and regions over recent weeks because the emergency services and social support networks have been so deprived of resources that they are unable to provide the needed assistance.

 

The virus outbreak, like the climate change-linked natural disasters wreaking havoc on the lives of millions of people, starkly poses the necessity of international scientific planning and organisation and the investment of hundreds of billions of dollars into health and safety infrastructure, emergency services and preventative measures. The obstacle is the capitalist system, which subordinates economic and social life to the accumulation of private profit for a minority and maintains the division of the integrated and interdependent global economy into competing national states.

Rolls-Royce plans mini nuclear reactors by 2029

 

 Jan 25 2020

 

Mini nuclear reactors could be generating power in the UK by the end of the decade.

Manufacturer Rolls-Royce has told the BBC's Today programme that it plans to install and operate factory-built power stations by 2029. Mini nuclear stations can be mass manufactured and delivered in chunks on the back of a lorry, which makes costs more predictable.

But opponents say the UK should quit nuclear power altogether. They say the country should concentrate on cheaper renewable energy instead.

Environmentalists are divided over nuclear power, with some maintaining it is dangerous and expensive, while others say that to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 all technologies are needed. However, the industry is confident that mini reactors can compete on price with low-cost renewables such as offshore wind.

Rolls-Royce is leading a consortium to build small modular reactors (SMRs) and install them in former nuclear sites in Cumbria or in Wales. Ultimately, the company thinks it will build between 10 and 15 of the stations in the UK. They are about 1.5 acres in size - sitting in a 10-acre space. That is a 16th of the size of a major power station such as Hinkley Point.

SMRs are so small that theoretically every town could have its own reactor - but using existing sites avoids the huge problem of how to secure them against terrorist attacks.

It is a rare positive note from the nuclear industry, which has struggled as the cost of renewables has plummeted.

In the past few years, major nuclear projects have been abandoned as Japanese companies Toshiba and Hitachi pulled out because they could not get the required funding.

And the construction of Hinkley Point in Somerset could cost £3bn more than was expected, in an echo of the row over the rail mega-project HS2.

"The trick is to have prefabricated parts where we use advanced digital welding methods and robotic assembly and then parts are shipped to site and bolted together," said Paul Stein, the Chief Technology Officer at Rolls-Royce.

He said the approach would dramatically reduce the cost of building nuclear power sites, which would lead to cheaper electricity. But Paul Dorfman from University College London said: "The potential cost benefits of assembly line module construction relative to custom-build on-site construction may prove overstated.

"Production line mistakes may lead to generic defects that propagate throughout an entire fleet of reactors and are costly to fix," he warned. "It's far more economic to build one 1.2 GW unit than a dozen 100 MW units."

Rolls-Royce is hoping to overcome the cost barrier by selling SMRs abroad to achieve economies of scale.

Its critics have warned that SMRs will not be ready in substantial numbers until the mid 2030s, by which time electricity needs to be carbon-free in the UK already to meet climate change targets.