WILL THE CHINESE DRAGON AND U.S. EAGLE CLASH ON SRI LANKA’S TURF? – Part 1

David Soysa

“Let the Chinese sleep, when she wakes the world will be sorry” – Napoleon

Ever since China woke up in 1949, with Mao Tse Tung declaring that the “new China with a big population and a great wealth of products could change everything,” the US is indeed sorry. The new un-expected tectonic force of the East has been sending waves of fear, envy and resentment across the globe. As Mao promised, the new leaders of China want to change the west dominated world order that enabled the Opium war and nine foreign nations to tromp through China for nearly two centuries.

Deng Xiaoping, famously advised his colleagues in 1991, to maintain good relations with the U.S while building up China’s strength. Henry Kissinger, a connoisseur of fine diplomacy, proposed that a U.S. Chinese confrontation must be avoided. A.L. Friedberg (in his book “A contest for supremacy China, America) criticize Kissinger’s proposal saying it “fails to take national interest into account”. By synthesizing the views of Chinese intellectuals, authors, think tanks and a few military officers, he reads these experts as saying “China should seek to “displace the U.S. as the dominant player from East Asia and perhaps from the region altogether”. To the new breed of intellectuals in Beijing, US is a declining weak power. They pair 9/11 with 9/14, the day that Lehman Brothers collapsed in Wall Street. Chinese President Hu Jing Tao and Jin Ping (who will be the new President at the end of 2012) emphasize that “China is not spoiling for a fight with US!

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WILL THE CHINESE DRAGON AND U.S. EAGLE CLASH ON SRI LANKA’S TURF?– Part II

David Soysa-August 25, 2012

Gathering Storm 

U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta in his address to the annual “Shangrila Dialogue” in Singapore in June 2012, announced US decision to shift 60% of the US fleet from the West to Asia Pacific. A move prompted no doubt, by the increasing tension in the region. After visiting Vietnam thereafter, Panetta held talks in New Delhi with PM Manmohan Singh and the Defence Minister. Next stop was Kabul from where he issued a stern warning to Pakistan saying “US officials are reaching the limits of their patience”. Panetta’s explicit description of frustration, is due to the fall of Saigon (in April 1975) type spectre, staring at US military planners for US exit in 2014. If Pakistan refuses to open the only exit route from Kabul, a military confrontation between US and Pakistan appears to be inevitable. Fearing this, Chinese Foreign Minister visited Pakistan in June 2012, and assured Chinese intervention to defend Pakistan if attacked by US. Chinese senior officials also visited Kabul to sign a deal to extract oil and to give a face lift to the ancient Silk Route through Afghanistan. Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) has given observer status to Afghanistan. Hillary Clinton in July 2012 conferred on Afghanistan non NATO ally membership. Thus Hillary brought NATO base to South Asia. Hence when US leaves Afghanistan after destroying (and plundering even most valuable museum artifacts) China may enter to begin repair work. If Tibet under Chinese, is a headache for US and India, Afghanistan with a Chinese face lift may become a nightmare. That’s how China wins battles without a fight. US Defence Dept. Publications “America’s Security Role in a changing world’’ describing India’s development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems “raises the risks to the physical security of both nations nuclear weapons” and that additional tests might compromise US-India nuclear agreement. The report highlights the risk of a nuclear war either through accident or misperception in crisis (page 232). I wonder whether either Defence or Foreign Ministry has seen the report?

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