Lok Sabha Elections And Sri Lanka

By S.Sivathasan -October 1, 2013 

S.Sivathasan

The current Lok Sabha is the 15^th and the constitutional term of office expires on May 31, 2014. Before this date it will be dissolved and elections held  for543 seats. In the complex tangle that has come about since 2009, the next election is of much significance to India and even more to Sri Lanka. India’s normal international relations apart, are the involvements of Sri Lanka which cause concern for India. What are the constituents of this complexity and how are three principal players –Delhi, Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka – likely to view evolving developments from now on? It appears that a new dimension is now added with the entry of the Northern Provincial Council in the state of play. The next five years seem to need sensitive approaches. In this context comes the Indian election.

Comfort Zone (37 years – 8 elections)

A broad survey of election results of the past will give some clues to the immediate future. In the duration of 62 years from the first to the present, there are two distinctive time zones. The first, comfort zone and the second uncertain zone. In the first 8 elections from 1952 to 1984, Congress swept the polls, winning 7 out of 8 and obtaining a clear majority for forming a government on its own strength. At 6 of the 7 elections, the majority ranged from 2/3 to 4/5.There was no party to challenge the supremacy of Congress. In 1977 Congress lost the elections, getting 34% of votes and 28% of seats. The Indian voter registered lack of appetite for Indira Gandhi’s ‘iron rule’, the only menu that could have nourished India best.

Uncertain Zone (25 years-7 elections)

In the second zone, out of 7 elections from 1989 to 2009, neither Congress nor a non-Congress party ever got a clear majority. In this period, the highest number of seats that Congress obtained was 244 out of 545 in 1991 and the lowest was 114 in 1999. If this performance was dismal, even more disappointing was voter endorsement. At five consecutive elections from 1996 to 2009, Congress was unable to break the barrier of 29% of the popular vote. It even came down to 25.8% in 1998 from the highest of 49% in1984. For the giant Congress it has been a matter of continuing disquiet.

Vote seat correspondence has now disappeared. The election of 1996 presents an incredible picture. The Janata Dal alliance secured 192 seats. With only 0.2% total votes more than the Congress, it got 52 more seats. The BJP alliance got 29 million votes less than Congress but 47 seats more. Such were the disparities at one election and they were not an exception.                          

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