A Landslide In The Bovine-Belt

By Kumar David -May 25, 2014

Dr. Kumar David

This essay argues that despite the victory of a right-wing Hindutva party and leader, Indian democracy and secularism are secure. The landslide was in an extended cow-belt; let me call it the bovine-belt. Cow-belt refers to the solid Hindi speaking cluster (Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Delhi). To expand it to the bovine-belt I add Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Orissa. Interestingly less than 40% of India’s 1.2 billion live in the so defined cow-belt; expand it to the bovine-belt and that adds another 300 million souls. If the cow-belt is the Hindi heartland, then the larger bovine-belt is the current Hindutva heartland. Here you will find the 2014 base support of the BJP, the RSS and Shiv Sena (Maharashtra only).

The parliamentary seats won by the BJP (NDA) in the 2014 elections were 282 (336), but 264 (320) of these were in the bovine-belt; that is to say the BJP/NDA performed appallingly in Kerala (0 out of 20 seats), West Bengal (2/42), Tamil Nadu (2/39), Telangana (2/17), Orissa (1/21) and did not do well in most small states in the North East and elsewhere. This is a bovine-belt landslide, not an all India triumph for Modi and the BJP. Since India employs a first-past-the-post system, even in the heart of the cow-belt, Utter Pradesh, India’s most populous state with 80 seats where the BJP carried 71, its vote share was 42%. Only in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra (BJP-Shiv Sena combine) did it poll over 50%. (The UP numbers in the table are slightly inexact). The biggest landslide was in the bovine-belt beyond the core cow-belt. Nationally, the percentage polls were; NDA, that is BJP+, 39%; Congress+ 24%; Others 37%.                        Read More