Precursor Of Bigger Things; It’s Not Just A Provincial Election: Speculating About After-Uva

By Kumar David -August 31, 2014

Prof. Kumar David

Provincial elections in Lanka are like by-elections. Elsewhere in the world by-elections are an opening for voters to express their disgruntlement with the party in power, here it is invariably an opportunity for a sycophantic electorate to come out and cheer the party in power, whether SLFP or UNP, and bum its way into favour. What happens at a general election, however, is a different test. Elections to the European Parliament belong to this by-election category; earlier this year the established parties across Europe were hit in the solar plexus, but come the next national elections the upstarts (Marie le Pen, UKIP etc) will slip back to more modest positions. The Uva PC election takes place at a time when it is not quite a pseudo by-election where the electorate will bend over backwards to bum the government. I will not call it a litmus test of things to come either, but it will signal trends to a degree.

It is foolish, even so late in the day and less than a month before polling day, to hazard a guess what the outcome will be for the reason that subterranean disenchantment with the government is said to be in motion, but putting a number on votes, except to say the UPFA vote will decline, is hazardous. The fall may be substantial, it may be inconsequential. My goal today is not this guessing game but to speculate what the political consequences of different outcomes may be. That is a safer and more logical line of analysis.

Let be put some background down on paper first. The August 2009 Uva PC election was a landslide victory for the UPFA, the largest victory of any PC except for the 2013 TNA tornado in the NP. The UPFA polled 72.4% (and took 25 seats including 2 bonus seats), the UNP 22.3% (7 seats), the JVP 2.5% (1 seat) and the Up-Country People’s Front 1.6% (1 seat). This is the benchmark against which we have to compare swings, but first comparison with the recent Western and Southern PC elections of March 2014 is relevant. (The dated 2012 and 2013 PC election results are no longer significant).                                                           Read More