Power brokers in a UK hung Parliament?

by Victor Cherubim

( March 31, 2015, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) The runners and riders are at the starting gate for the UK General Election in 38 days. The starting pistol has been fired with the dissolution of Parliament. The traffic-light colours symbolising – Red (Labour), Amber (Lib Dems), Amber & Blue (Lib Dems / Conservatives and Green (Green Party) have now been replaced by the colours of the rainbow. We hope to see Purple (UK Independence Party, UKIP), Orange (Northern Ireland Unionists), Yellow (Plaid Cymru – Welsh Independence Party), Yellow and Black (Scottish Nationalist SNP founded in 1934) and colours of a polyglot of nondescript, some absurd, others nonplus individuals, – all vying for a seat at Westminster. The election no doubt may awaken the curiosity in the minds of Sri Lankans everywhere.

UK Election and Sri Lanka

Having observed the elections in the UK since Harold Wilson’s Labour Party in 1966, Government policies at Westminster have had a bearing on the Commonwealth and in Sri Lanka. With the migration to UK of Ceylonese students for professional qualifications, as barristers, doctors, engineers, in days past, followed some thirty odd years ago by Tamil refugees, followed by economic migrants, followed more recently by moneyed entrepreneurs. Sri Lankans have played a role in British politics.

We may have believed that, “Made in Britain” is always best, as we depended on British aid from the Colombo Plan, and from other British funds for our Hydro Power development. During the 30 odd year’s war, we may have got small arms which were British, but shipped from the European Union nations. Whether we like it or not, our citizens long to visit Britain mainly to work here, to be educated here particularly at Oxbridge in days past, imbued in Trotskyite, Marxist and Socialist tradition, turning from being refugees to business entrepreneurs over the years on British high streets and being the voter base for the parties at the polls. Some Sri Lankans may have been forced to return home, with a jaundiced view of Britain, others have fought High Court battles and remained indefinitely in Britain, stating that Sri Lanka is not safe for them.

The laws of England and customs and traditions of Britain have formed the backbone of our own laws, at times replacing our own customs.UK Charities like “Save the Children” and the work of “Halo” in mine clearing; have been of invaluable assistance to Sri Lanka. The UK Election on May 7, 2015, will also have an impact on the way Britain thinks and votes at Geneva, on financial aid and whether Britain will support Sri Lanka’s apparel trade and reduce trade barriers. “The design, manufacture and export of our textiles and apparel products, account for about half of the country’s total exports to UK, employing about 15 % of our workforce.” This is besides, our traditional exports of tea, rubber and coconut, among others.

The current election trend

Two main features are prominent, at the polls in Britain. First, is “party loyalty”, of the two main rival parties, the Conservatives and Labour? This feature which was the hallmark of British politics has perhaps, slowly been eroded over time. There were always diehards “Reds” and “Blues” at election time.

Today, we see a slow change in voter loyalty. Along with the change in taste buds from Roast Beef and Yorkshire pudding, to Samosas, Pilau rice and Chicken Masala, the voter base of the two main parties has also changed. We see a pattern over the years. Labour governments replaced by Tories and Tories replaced by Labour.

Strangely, today it appears Britain has “caught the cold“of Coalition Party Politics of the European Union nations. Nobody knows whether this trend is here to stay or is a passing phase. No single party is sadly able to command a majority in the House of Commons. To obtain a majority of 326 seats in Parliament to form a government is seen as a gruesome task, for both the Conservatives and Labour. Opinion polls suggest they are neck and neck at 34 % in voter polls. “Few recent elections have been closer and as a result many political insiders are regarding the coming weeks not as one General Election campaign, but 150 or so by-elections in key marginal seats to be canvassed.” Both parties remain concerned that they cannot break ahead, like either Maggie Thatcher or Tony Blair, in elections past.

The rationale of the electorate

Insurgent parties both north and south of the border, the SNP in Scotland and UKIP in England, are hoping to unseat, Labour in Scotland and Conservatives in England.

This is causing the second trend in party politics, which is voter apathy. English voters seem to grumble that 50 out of the 59 Scottish MP’s representing up to two million voters of Scotland, will have the power and leverage over 300 plus MPs for England and Wales answering to 40 million voters. The Scots with this power may indeed become a major power broker with either of the major parties, at this election.

Likewise UKIP, clawing on dissent on Europe are making inroads on the Conservative and Labour vote base. Diehard Labour voters feel jobs will be at stake if Britain goes for a referendum on Europe as promised by the Conservatives. True Blue Conservatives fear a deal with UKIP to remain in Government, is against their liking, following a five year coalition with the Liberal Democrats. There is unease in both party camps. Horse trading for Conservatives, perhaps, with the Greens, Irish Unionists and others may become a necessity to continue to remain in power.

With the outcome of a hung parliament and general voter apathy, the Conservatives possibly will woo the elderly to vote for them and that Labour may well rely on rallying the migrant voters of the Asian sub continent along with the Scottish Nationalists, to support them. he views of the smaller parties will become clearer, once the TV debate of the seven party leaders featuring David Cameron (Conservative) Ed Milliband (Labour) Nick Clegg (Lib Dem) Nigel Farage (UKIP) Natalie Bennett (Green) Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) and Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru), takes place on Thursday night, 2 April 2015. The runners and riders are off to a start. But the unlike previous mass TV campaign, it may perhaps, be the “old fashioned” knocking on voter doors, which may clinch the result.