In the fight against the Islamic State, Iraq’s leader begins to look shaky

Iraq's prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, center, visits the shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf, 100 miles south of Baghdad in early November. (Anmar Khalil/AP)

By Loveday Morris-November 27

BAGHDAD — In a mansion tiled with salmon-pink marble, Sunni politician Osama al-Nujaifi greets visitors in an expansive meeting room. From a chair flanked by the national flag, he insists he is still vice president of Iraq — even though Iraq’s prime minister says he is not.

Nujaifi’s position and Iraq’s two other vice presidencies were eliminated by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in purported cost-cutting measures announced this summer. But there is little change at Nujaifi’s office. His staff is still paid, he said, and he is working as normal.

His defiance highlights Abadi’s weak hand as he fails to execute anything but superficial changes after pledging wide-ranging reforms in response to street protests. Smelling blood as he flounders, his political rivals have turned on him, while Iran-backed militias leverage what they can from him.

His precarious position appears likely to raise concerns in Washington as it backs him in his fight against the Islamic State — a war that has taken on anew urgency for the United States and Europe as the group has rapidly expanded its operations overseas.

[The Islamic State rampage in Iraq has torn villages apart, sowing distrust]

 

“His position is shaking,” said Ali Adeeb, a senior member of Abadi’s Dawa party.

“Everyone is talking about who Haider al-Abadi will be replaced by,” he said. “Perhaps the will of the big people that want this change will succeed.”

Since his first days in office, Abadi has struggled to assert himself in the world of Iraqi politics as he has tried to balance the competing interests of Iraq’s two main security allies — Iran and the United States. His eroded position could shift that balance, allowing Iran to further extend its reach into Iraqi politics and security matters.

It has been a challenge from the outset. Following the ouster of his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, Abadi was not initially suggested as a successor, later emerging as a consensus candidate.

Maliki, who vehemently objected to being removed, remains the secretary general of the Dawa party and since his ouster is widely said to have worked to sabotage his rival, splitting loyalties within the party.

“He’s in a hard position,” Sami al-Askari, a veteran Shiite politician, said of Abadi. “The party is not united behind him.”

Adeeb said Abadi is perceived as “illegitimate.”

 

Perhaps in an attempt to prove his mettle, when protesters took to the streets demanding better services and action against corruption, Abadi promised the biggest shake-up in Iraqi politics since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. He appeared emboldened by the support of demonstrators, as well as Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

In addition to axing the vice presidential posts — which included that of Maliki — he merged four ministries and closed others.

But his reform attempts have backfired, delivering little while managing to irk powerful political players who stand to lose out. Proposed salary reforms turned street protesters against him.

Some of the few changes he made appear to have been unconstitutional, giving ample fodder to those who opposed change — and there are plenty of such opponents in a country where so many politicians line their pockets through rampant graft.

“He killed the reforms by breaking the law,” said Nujaifi. He has complained to the federal court about his removal and has not been paid since August, he said. “My colleagues and I are still working, our offices are still working, and we all consider ourselves vice presidents.”

[Chaos in Iraqi forces contributed to Islamic State’s biggest win this year]

In a severe blow to the prime minister earlier this month, Iraq’s parliament voted unanimously to withdraw support for his reform package, accusing him of overstepping his powers. During a recent visit to Iraq’s Shiite holy city of Najaf, he met with Shiite clerics but not Sistani. Although the grand ayatollah often steers clear of politics and politicians, that was widely viewed as a snub by the top cleric who had initially given him political cover for his actions.

“We’d need a prophet to do real reforms in Iraq, not Abadi,”said Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Organization, a Shiite political party with a powerful armed wing. “Basically there are no reforms. All they’ve done is change a few names.”

Amiri added: “How much is he going to save in salaries? Nothing. If this is the reforms, it’s useless.”

But it is Abadi’s weakness that may save him, as Iraqi politicians attempt to leverage what they can out of the situation. There are few alternative options, and the United States and, for the moment, Iran are too concerned about a potential power vacuum to want to see him leave, analysts and politicians said.

“The probability is he will stay, but he’s got a big black eye,”said Kirk Sowell, a political risk analyst and publisher of Inside Iraq Politics. For the moment, Iran will use his weakness to build its “sub-state assets,” he said.

“As long as the Iraqi government is funding Iranian-backed militiamen, they’ll be content,” Sowell said.

The militias, meanwhile, certainly appear to be using the opportunity to get what they can. Last month, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, leader of Iraq’s amalgamation of largely Shiite militias known as the popular mobilization units, wrote a patronizing letter to Abadi demanding more support for his fighters. In an embarrassment to the prime minister, it was leaked publicly.

“I have told you repeatedly that we need headquarters and training camps and weapons and munitions,” the letter said. “Why and why and why?” he wrote, questioning the supposed lack of support.

Amiri, who had just returned from a visit to Iran and is close to the leadership there, said it is not in Iran’s interest to remove Abadi now.

He stressed that Abadi must give more support to militia fighters in next year’s budget. But regardless, he said, the country should “stand by Abadi” because it is facing a real threat. Besides, with huge economic problems, public pressure for reform, ongoing war and a litany of obstacles to change, there are few options.

“Only a crazy man would want to be in his position right now,” Amiri said.

Mustafa Salim contributed to this report.

Read more:

Islamic State is losing ground. Will that mean more attacks overseas?

The Islamic State rampage in Iraq has torn villages apart, sowing distrust

In Sinjar, the Islamic State ‘took everything the Yazidis had and left’

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Loveday Morris is The Post's Baghdad bureau chief. She joined The Post in 2013 as a Beirut-based correspondent. She has previously covered the Middle East for The National, based in Abu Dhabi, and for the Independent, based in London and Beirut.