South Asia’s new power configurations

September 28, 2016, 8:27 pm 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference with Nepalese Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal following a meeting in New Delhi - AFP

Accordingly, the big powers could very well be finding these times very challenging. Gone are the relative certainties of the Cold War years. Gone are the days when the world political order could be perceived in stark black and white terms. As in the case of India, most major powers are obliged to be guided by a policy of economic pragmatism because the 'economy is the thing' today. To cap it all, the growth models of the past could be called in question. For example, old style socialism would no longer work. The same goes for the market economy approach to growth, which does not make provision for social welfarism.

Developments in Kashmir, including a recent attack on an Indian military base that claimed some 18 Indian security personnel, are aggravating tensions between India and Pakistan but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed a viewpoint that could go some distance in deescalating these bilateral strains. Addressing a gathering in India, Modi said that if at all there has to be competition of any sort between India and Pakistan it should centre on who could eliminate poverty and underdevelopment first.

Clearly, the Indian Premier is not responding positively to the vociferous calls coming from hard line quarters in India that the latter should deal with Pakistan militarily over current bilateral tensions. If his comments are anything to go by, then, the Indian Prime Minister is perceptually far outclassing those who take it upon themselves to advise him. To begin with, wars between the sides have not brought any substantial benefits to either party in the past. Besides, it is economic considerations that matter most to the developing world currently and none other. If a developing country loses the war against want it loses everything. And the opportunities are numerous for economic self- advancement in the present world economic order. India has established the judiciousness of putting economics above politics and this should be seen by the developing countries as the way to go.

Hopefully, the Indian Prime Minister’s sound common sense would prevail over the 'call for blood'. The situations in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq, for instance, are proof that war is a non-option in the resolution of national and international disputes. The losses from another Indo-Pakistani war would far outweigh any perceived gains. The two sides would do well to overlook any short term political gains from another armed confrontation.

Current developments in the inter-state politics of South Asia, clearly underscore the growing unimportance of Cold War type defence and political alignments. As this is being written, Russia has considered it useful to conduct joint military exercises with Pakistan. Taking exception to this arrangement, India has reportedly told Russia, an old Cold War ally, to choose between it and Pakistan. Elaborating on this development, Indian officials were quoted as saying that, 'The challenge before us is to keep the India-Russia relationship stable in a loosening great power universe.'

Nothing more insightful could have been stated in this context. At one time, the Russia-India partnership, expressed most cogently in the 'The Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation' of 1971, was seen as inviolable and there to stay. But it was born of cold War compulsions all of which are, of course, not present today. Accordingly, India is obliged to question its relevance and to amend its parameters, if necessary. Currently, this necessity could grow out of ground realities in international economics and not so much out of international politics. The 'great power universe is indeed loosening' and an emerging economy's foreign policy outlook may need to change, accordingly.

Seen from this viewpoint, it should not come as a surprise if the US is proving to be of greater importance to India than Russia at present, although India would be naïve to discount the obvious significance of Russia as a foremost military, economic and political power.

As a 'business friendly' government, the Modi administration would find a natural ally in the US, the world's number one economic power, but the challenge, as mentioned, would be for India to balance its ties with the US with those that it has forged with Russia. However, a strong tilt towards the US in current Indian foreign policy should also be expected when the perceived challenge to India's regional predominance emanating from China is taken into consideration. India's need to counterbalance China in Asia is prompted by the close ties Pakistan has had with China, originating in Pakistan's need to offset India's perceived power.

Nevertheless, international economic, political and military developments are in a state of tremendous flux and it would not be in the interests of a power of the stature of India to cultivate close relations with the US at the expense of other foremost powers, such as, Russia. Accordingly, India would consider it of the utmost importance to finely balance its relations between the US and Russia.

However, military exercises between Pakistan and Russia are something India would find difficult to stomach, considering the close, multifaceted ties India has been enjoying with Russia over the decades. Given the current rather intense tensions between India and Pakistan, a perceived strategic tie-up between Russia and Pakistan is a development that India is likely to view with some concern. Hence, the statement that Russia needs to choose between India and Pakistan.

Accordingly, the big powers could very well be finding these times very challenging. Gone are the relative certainties of the Cold War years. Gone are the days when the world political order could be perceived in stark black and white terms. As in the case of India, most major powers are obliged to be guided by a policy of economic pragmatism because the 'economy is the thing' today. To cap it all, the growth models of the past could be called in question. For example, old style socialism would no longer work. The same goes for the market economy approach to growth, which does not make provision for social welfarism.

So, these are times of deep uncertainty, in economic and political terms, and to the extent to which the times are unstable, to the same extent could the world be considered as witnessing a degree of global 'disorder'. In the final analysis, states and peoples need to survive and to this end they would tend to form alliances and blocs that could best serve this need, with no preconceptions.

Months ago, Russia would not have viewed Pakistan as a close military or defence ally but it is compelled to view things differently now because India is in the process of forging close relations with the US. This situation is compounded by the fact that Russia is locked in a Cold War type power struggle with the US in Syria and parts of Eastern Europe. Accordingly, power, security and survival are emerging, perhaps as never before, as prime factors in the forging of big power regional alliances.