A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Monday, August 28, 2017
Sri Lanka’s dangerous quest for cash from China and India
Between dragons and elephants:
"As the stand-off between the Indian and Chinese militaries enters its
third month at Doklam…The entire neighbourhood is watching"-Suhashini
Haider, The Hindu, 11.8.2017
There is a situation brewing about four kilometres away from the "crest
of the mountain range separating the waters flowing into the Sikkim
Teesta and its affluents from the waters flowing into the Thibetan Machu
and northwards". These lyrical words in the 1890 Tibet-Sikkim
Convention between the British and Qing Empires, define the boundaries
between China and Bhutan, which China cites in its claim for territory
at the border in Doklam in its on-going dispute with India since June
this year.i
Sudheendra Kulkarni, head of Observer Research Foundation, writing on
the 22nd of August 2017 warned that "…the current deepening mistrust
between India and China…even carries the seeds of an armed conflict over
the prolonged military standoff at Doklam."
India’s other neighbours are watching the situation closely, but is Sri
Lanka? Nepal’s Deputy Prime Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara has already
said it "will not get dragged into this or that side in the border
dispute".
While border disputes are common on the India-China border, and the
foreign editor of the Hindustan Times, Pramit Paul Chaudri writes that
it is almost a weekly event along the disputed Himalayan border, there
is something different about this particular dispute. Indian
commentators point out that it is the first time that "it is not taking
place in Indian soil or Indian claimed territory".ii
Today, as both countries expand their interests regionally and globally,
Chaudri points out that India and China are "more likely to run into
each other in third countries". In the context of the rapidly changing
dynamics between these two emerging powers in our region and indeed
globally, Chaudri argues that "a new set of understandings will need to
be worked out in the coming decades. Unfortunately, as has happened in
the past, it will take a number of crises at a number of flashpoints to
occur before New Delhi and Beijing accept the goalposts have shifted and
the playbook needs to be updated."
Of great concern to Sri Lanka is his conclusion that "it is in this
transition period during which miscalculations are most likely to
happen."
Why is the Doklam stand-off of relevance to Sri Lanka? It brings home
sharply the vulnerabilities inherent in the current relationship between
China and India, which has now for the first time, spilled over into
the territory of another country, Bhutan. And with each day, the
tensions have escalated. There have been stones thrown at each other at
the border. Unprecedentedly, the most recent reports indicate some acts
of physical aggression, although Chaudri writes that, "none of the
soldiers carry weapons and have had no physical contact".
There is a perception at least in some Indian diplomatic circles that
Doklamrepresents an act of arrogance on the part of China. Jeff M.Smith,
Director of Asian Security at the American Foreign Policy Council
writes in a piece entitled ‘High Noon in the Himalayas’ that "One senior
diplomat…recently explained to me that the PLA’s border activities are
orchestrated by Beijing…They are designed to embarrass India’s
leadership…underscoring Modi’s inability to secure India’s sovereign
borders…No issue has garnered more friction than China’s creeping
inroads into both the Indian Ocean and the subcontinent."iii
The danger to Sri Lanka’s lies in this perception, in view of the plans
to lease for several decades the Mattala airport to India, less than 24
kilometers away from the Hambantota seaport and a large swathe of
surrounding land which has been leased to China for 99 years. Sri Lanka
has to be suicidal to even consider leasing this airport to India,
situated so close to the Chinese owned (at least for the next 99 years)
seaport of Hambantota. Standing empty at the moment, India’s interest in
it is surely not for Mattala’s enormousprofitability. And no one could
be more aware of this than China.
It is commonly believed that India played a role in Sri Lanka’s change
of government at the elections held two years ago which brought the
Unity Government to power. However, while the leader of the UNP promised
during campaigning to shut the Colombo Port City project as soon as the
‘unity’ coalition wins, and did stop all work there and in Hambantota
for several months, which must have pleased the Indian Government not to
mention the other geopolitical player in the region, the United States,
the new government re-started the projects on far more favourable terms
to China so as to compensate the latter for the losses incurred by the
disruption.
Suhashini Haider puts it bluntly when she writes that "India must
recognize that picking sides in the politics of its neighbours makes
little difference to China’s success…" She recognizes that Sri Lanka and
indeed the Maldives did little to change course after their governments
changed and calls India’s UPA’s role in these outcomes a mistake. She
also states that India was accused of bringing Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka
"Prachanda" to replace Prime Minister Oli in 2016 in Nepal.She urges the
Indian government that doing better with its neighbours "is about
following a policy of mutual interest and respect".
While many hope that the Doklam stand-off may get resolved when the
leaders of both countries attend the BRICS summit in the first week of
September, some worry that it will depend on whether the "boundary
contest escalates in to a full blown India-China crisis...It might just
push New Delhi to weigh options for a bilateral deal with the US".ivThis
will have far reaching consequences for the region.
In a different time, in the past, Sri Lanka which cannot remain
unmindful of developments in the region, could have been expected to
play a role to defuse tensions. Nimmi Kurian,Associate Professor at the
Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi and Faculty Advisor, India China
Institute at The New School, New York, describes the growing dispute in
Doklam as "the larger normative contest between India and China for
regional leadership". She laments that "India’s crisis of diplomacy has
often worked without a credible notion of what the endgame is". (This
description seems far more apt for the Unity Government of Sri Lanka
than for India.) However, she offers a solution. She asks if "as a
possible exit strategy from the stand-off, could India signal some sort
of a qualified engagement in the OBOR initiative?" She contends that
this is not so far-fetched since India is already a participant in AIIB
and the Bangladesh- China- India- Myanmar Economic corridor. One can
only hope that the BRICS summit will provide the platform to explore
such strategies.
Colombo’s Unity Government made much of the large debt it is supposed to
have inherited when it assumed power two years ago, and announced to
the country that it had no option but to lease Hambantota to China to
settle those debts. Unfortunately things didn’t stop at that. Since
then, it has been looking to sell as many assets as it can to other
countries/foreign companies for ready cash. The Government’s policy
makers seem unable to find another way which doesn’t endanger Sri
Lanka’s national interest. They seem loath to even consider exercising
the critical restraints on ownership by limiting foreign investment to a
proportion which ensures Sri Lankan control of the assets.Their first
priority seems to be to sell something to India, ostensibly for more
cash, but more likely to appease and reassure it that Sri Lanka is not
veering in the direction of China and is willing to balance off China by
readjusting toIndia’s geopolitical ambitions.
On his visit to Delhi, the PM was in discussion with India about leasing
Sri Lanka’s most treasured asset, the Trincomalee harbor, amidst
protests by the Opposition, trade unions, professional associations and
citizens. But now the government has embarked on a project that may turn
the deep south of our country into a needlessly "disputed area", by
invitation.
Shashank Joshi, Senior Research Fellow of the Royal United Services
Institute in London, writes that "Even before the [Doklam] crisis,
India-China relations were at their lowest ebb in a decade."v He
suggests three reasons that may have contributed to India’s sense of
grievance as "Beijing’s growing support for Pakistan, the sweeping Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), obstruction of India’s efforts to join the
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)." As for China’s attitude towards India,
Joshi suggests that a geopolitical factor that may have influenced it as
"India’s growing relationship with the United States and Japan…" in
addition to feeling "slighted by India’s public denunciation of BRI in
May."
These unresolved and burgeoning issues at the heart of the relationship
between these two regional giants (one of which is a global economic
giant) who are solicited to make heavy investments in Sri Lanka, have to
be factors in Sri Lanka’s own foreign policy, strategic and security
calculations.
What is the government thinking? The supposed competence at economics
and foreign affairs of the UNP, the decision making partner of the Unity
Government, is increasingly looking like just a shadow of a glorious
past, artificially enhanced by PR firms more recently. The President is
either unwilling or unable to steer the county in the right direction in
this time of complex geopolitical contestation, a task he has abdicated
to the Prime Minister, whom he considers vastly more proficient in such
matters than he. The citizens are now more than ever concerned that all
this falls far short of what it takes to run a country.
Iskander L. Rahman, a former associate in the Nuclear Policy Program at
the Carnegie Endowment, writing on the Doklam stand-off,quotes a Bhutani
journalist’s wry comment that they have so far avoided "both the fire
from the Dragon on our heads and also the Elephant’s tusks in our soft
underbelly". It is hoped that Sri Lanka does not voluntarily prepare a
battleground on its soil for Dragons and Elephants to test their
relative strengths. We will not survive it as a single county.