A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Saturday, September 9, 2017
Myanmar: The Army Holds the Key
Aung
San Suu Kyi and her government is under great pressure for an immediate
end to the military operations in this area and to provide humanitarian
assistance and development aid for the short and long term.
( September 7, 2017, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) When
Suu Kyi took over after a sweeping victory in the elections, she had
three priorities in mind. The first was ethnic reconciliation, the
second was constitutional amendment and the third economic empowerment.
Within the limited space available to her under the 2008 constitution,
Suu Kyi has deftly managed to make some progress in ethnic
reconciliation. On the economic front, Myanmar continues to suffer from
“economic underdevelopment” as Suu Kyi herself admits and is because of
lack of peace and stability that depends very much on the Army. As for
the second, the country has a long way to go as the Army still holds the
key and is unlikely to relent in the near term. Amidst all these,
Myanmar has shot into prominence internationally for the wrong reasons-
the Rohingyan crisis that resulted in a firm response from the army to
simultaneous attacks on 30 Police posts in northern Rakhine Province by a
terrorist unit that called itself as the Arakan Rohingyan Salvation
Army.
Consequent to the second round of the 21st century Panglong Conference
in end May 2017 there has been a lull in the political activity in
Myanmar except for renewed efforts between the ethnic groups and the
government for sorting out the differences and encouraging more groups
to sign the National Cease-fire Agreement in the near future. The latest
good news was that the UNFC- a group that did not participate in the
Second Panglong Conference is said to have decided to go the “National
Cease Fire Agreement Way” as proposed in the first conference.
However, the release of the final report of the Kofi Annan-led Advisory
Commission on Rakhine State on 23rd August 2017, an attack in the early
hours of 25 August 2017 on the security forces by the Arakan Salvation
Army in the Rakhine State and the reactions of the Government and the
clearance operations by the Tatmadaw (armed forces) to this attack has
brought the nation to the limelight of the international media and
condemnation by the human rights agencies of the world. Besieged as she
was from international media as well as some countries like Turkey, Suu
Kyi in turn denounced the international attention and blamed the
terrorists for a “huge iceberg” of misinformation on the violence in the
Arakan State
Arakan Advisory Commission
The nine- member Arakan Advisory Commission under the Chairmanship of
former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was constituted in September 2016
to investigate and give their recommendations for the conflict
involving the Rohingyas and the other communities in the state of
Rakhine. The commission submitted its final report on 23 August 2017.
While indicating that a highly militarized response is unlikely to bring
peace to the area, the commission recommended among other things the
review of the 1982 citizenship act for granting citizenship to the
Rohingyas and for their freedom of movement, employment opportunities
and socio-economic development of the area.
The State Counsellor’s office conveyed its appreciation of the final
report and that it is serious in its efforts to find a way forward for
Rakhine and indicated the progress already made in this direction on the
basis of the recommendations made in the interim report. However, it
had also enumerated the constraints being faced by the government in
this regard.
Attack by Militants and the military Crackdown in Rakhine State
In the early hours of 25 August 2017 the Rohingya militants staged a
co-ordinated attack on 30 police posts and an army post in Maungdaw. The
Army Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing “cited the casualties of
security forces as 13 (11 policemen and two soldiers) besides an
immigration officer, a member of health staff and 14 ethnic Arakanese
civilians. He also described infrastructure that had been destroyed
including eight bridges and more than 2700 homes”. – The Irrawaddy 04
September 2017.
The Arakan Salvation Army (ARSA) which has claimed responsibility for
this attack has been declared a terrorist organisation by the
Government. The Maungdaw area has been declared a military “operational
area” in order to ensure the “effectiveness” of the clearance operations
as indicated by the Myanmar Army C.in.C.
In the crackdown and the clearance operations launched on 25 August and
which is still in progress, the causalities and the number of Rohingyas
fleeing into Bangladesh have been increasing every day. A Reuters report
of 05 September 2017 indicates that nearly 1,25,000 Rohingya Muslims
have fled to Bangladesh and at least 400 of them have been killed
besides burning of homes and extensive damage to infrastructure.
Aung San Suu Kyi and her government is under great pressure for an
immediate end to the military operations in this area and to provide
humanitarian assistance and development aid for the short and long term.
The UN Security Council met on 30 August 2017 and expressed its
concern. Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia have expressed their
concerns on the increasing violence against Rohingya Muslims.
Civil Military Relations
Early August 2017 the Yangon Region Chief Minister had commented “The
Military should be under civil administrative rule. According to
protocol the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces is at the level of
the director-general. But we have to deal with the (C-in-C) as head of
state. This is not democracy at all” – Frontier August 06, 2017.
The Armed forces created a ruckus over this remark and the Yangon Region
Chief Minister had to tender an apology for his remarks. The Tatmadaw
went to the extent of saying that such remarks damage the prospects for
national reconciliation and for building a long term relationship
between the government and the Tatmadaw.
There was another instance- the Economic Advisor to the NLD besides
blaming inept bureaucracy, pointed out that military control as one of
the reasons for poor economic performance. He said that the first
challenge to improve the stagnant economy, is the constitution and its
limitations with the Army taking away 25 percent of the parliament seats
and three ministries!
It looks that, given the constraints and the limited space available,
the present government is trying to maintain a harmonious relationship
with the Tatmadaw (Army). However, the obstacles posed by the Tatmadaw
in the peace process, its offensives on some major ethnic groups and the
current operations against the Rohingyas indicate that the relations
are at present strained and the government is in a weak and delicate
situation to handle the Tatmadaw. For instance the unilateral decision
of the Army to undertake “clearance operations” in Kachin controlled
area would certainly go against the spirit of the recently held Second
Panglong Conference. When members in the Parliament raised objections,
the Army representative bluntly told them that according to the
Constitution the army need not seek approval from anyone!
Sino-Myanmar Relations
Aung San Suu Kyi had a one to one meeting on 16 May 2017 with Xi Jinping
during her visit to China to attend China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Forum. (BRI)
China and Burma signed five agreements on that day regarding
co-operation in economic development, health and the preservation of
historic monuments in Bagan. Of these agreements the framework of the
Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road
Initiative and the establishment of the China- Border Economic
Cooperation Zone are very important.
China has taken special interest in the ongoing peace process in Myanmar
by sending its special envoy Sun Guoxiang who had met Aung San Suu Kyi
and some ethnic groups and had even arranged a flight to fly some ethnic
groups to Naypyidaw to attend the peace conference in end May 2017.
China sent Song Tao, Head of International Liaison Department of the
Communist Party of China on an official trip to Myanmar. He had a
meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi on August 04, 2017 which was highly
publicised. There are indications of a high level visit from China to
Myanmar.
China is the only neighbouring country which had not commented on the current Rohingya Crisis.
With the UNFC deciding to go by the NCA, the field is now open between
the China controlled Federal Political Negotiation Consultative
Committee (FPNCC) and the Government. This group completely negates the
modalities laid down by the National Cease fire and would take on the
government collectively. While Suu Kyi’s government is willing to be
flexible, the Army appears to be reluctant to move away from the NCA! It
is not willing either to recognize the northern alliance as yet though
it is now part of the FPNCC. Here again the Army holds the key.
Indo-Myanmar Relations
Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on his first bi-lateral state visit to
Myanmar from 05-07 September 2017. He had last visited Myanmar in
November 2014 for ASEAN-India Summit.
India, though not trying to compete with China, is improving its
connectivity with Myanmar and is actively involved with Myanmar in some
development cooperation projects in its pursuance of its Act East
policy. The PM’s visit appears to have been a great success. It had
indicated, that unlike other countries, it is not interested in
commercial cooperation and has no agenda of its own in Myanmar.
Conclusion:
State Counsellor Suu Kyi has too many challenges to cope with. People
who have swept her into power have high expectations and may not be
aware of the constraints placed on her in the 2008 Constitution to
Myanmar’s transition to democracy. Despite obstacles in the peace
process and in maintaining law and order she has done her best, given
the fact that she is not in control. She still has the international
support. Where she has power she has used – for e.g. she has not allowed
the National Defense and Security Council to meet where the army has
the majority. She did not allow martial law to be declared in Northern
Rakhine State, though tough clearance operations are still going on. The
Rohingya problem which has shot into lime light needs to be attended to
immediately. She could do more in improving the economy and this cannot
wait for the ethnic problem to be solved!