The Trump administration announced Friday that the United States will
pull out of a nuclear arms control treaty with Russia, ending a
cornerstone Cold War agreement and raising fears of a new nuclear arms
race in Europe and Asia.
President Trump said Russia is violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a charge Moscow denies, leaving the United
States at a disadvantage because of its own compliance at a time when
global threats have changed considerably in the more than 30 years since
the pact was signed.
“We cannot be the only country in the world unilaterally bound by this
treaty, or any other,” Trump said in a statement. “We will move forward
with developing our own military response options and will work with
NATO and our other allies and partners to deny Russia any military
advantage from its unlawful conduct.”
The treaty has been a central element of Europe’s security strategy for
more than three decades and its signing was considered a crucial moment
in Cold War arms control, eliminating more than 2,600 missiles and
ending a years-long standoff with nuclear missiles in Europe.
But the Trump administration has argued that Russia has not been
complying with the pact since 2014 and that it puts the United States at
a military disadvantage against China, which is not bound by the
treaty.
President Trump said Feb. 1 he wants a "new treaty" to replace the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia, from which the U.S. plans to withdraw. (Photo: Oliver Contreras/The Washington Post)
President Trump said Feb. 1 he wants a "new treaty" to replace the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia, from which the U.S. plans to withdraw. (Photo: Oliver Contreras/The Washington Post)
The collapse of the pact highlights the cost of poor relations between
Washington and Moscow, which even during the Cold War managed to hammer
out mutually agreeable arms control pacts.
The withdrawal also signals the increasing peril treaties face in a
Trump administration that emphasizes national sovereignty over
international cooperation. In addition to withdrawing from the INF
Treaty, Trump has also left the Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate
accord and threatened to pull out of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization and World Trade Organization. His withdrawal from the INF
Treaty has fueled concerns that he will decline to extend the main
nuclear arms treaty with Russia and risk a return to the early days of
the nuclear arms race.
The demise of the INF Treaty opens the door to the deployment of
American intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia, potentially
increasing the tension in a standoff with Russia and China.
The United States so far has said none of the intermediate-range
missiles it is considering deploying would carry nuclear weapons, an
effort to tamp down fears that the treaty’s collapse will presage the
proliferation of nuclear missiles across Europe and Asia.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that, effective Saturday, the United
States will suspend participation in the agreement, starting a
six-month countdown to a final U.S. withdrawal. That leaves a slim
chance that Russia could end missile programs widely seen as a
violation, salvaging the treaty.
The United States did not announce plans for any new weapons or shifts
in missile deployments, but Trump administration officials did not rule
it out down the road.
The United States' plan to scrap this Cold War treaty raises fears of another nuclear arms buildup.(William Neff /The Washington Post)
Trump said he would like to see a “new treaty that would be much better”
and apply to more nations, although chances of such an agreement are
remote. Neither Russia nor China, whose military advances since the
treaty was signed have changed the old Cold War calculus, would be
likely to agree.
“The United States is hopeful that we can put our relationship with
Russia back on a better footing, but the onus is on Russia to change
course from a pattern of destabilizing activity, not just on this issue
but on many others as well,” Pompeo said when announcing the decision Friday.
Russia is violating the treaty with the deployment of a banned missile,
according to the administration, while China never faced its
constraints, deploying what a senior U.S. official said was more than
1,000 intermediate-range missiles banned by the treaty.
Russia has in turn accused the United States of violating the INF Treaty
through its missile defense systems in Europe, an allegation that the
State Department has rebutted.
The Trump administration faced criticism among arms control experts for
not doing enough to save the treaty and engaging in what critics
described as a box-ticking exercise to negotiate with the Russians in
recent months designed more to satisfy European allies than to save the
pact.
“Withdrawing from INF . . . isn’t the best way to punish Russia for its
non-compliance,” Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO, wrote in
a Twitter post. “Rather, sticking with it is still the best way to keep
a lid on Russian threat.”
Some analysts have also faulted the Obama administration for not doing
enough in its final years to induce Moscow into abiding by the treaty.
Russia has said it wants to remain in the INF, and it blames the United
States for the breakdown of the treaty. But a senior Trump
administration official told reporters that Russia has in fact sought to
get out of the treaty for years and began violating it after Washington
refused its request to end the pact.
Russian President Vladmir Putin is likely to continue seeking new arms
control talks with Washington, in part because negotiating over nuclear
arsenals puts Moscow on near-equal diplomatic footing with the much
richer and better-armed United States, analysts say. Russia’s far more
limited defense budget also incentivizes Moscow to avoid a full-fledged
arms race.
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, although Russian
officials had earlier said they expected the U.S. announcement.
“I don’t think we need to take tough countermeasures right now,” Andrei
Krasov, deputy head of the defense committee in Russia’s lower house of
parliament, told the Interfax news agency after Pompeo’s announcement.
“We have a huge military potential anyway that can counter any threat.”
The Trump administration has signaled for months that it wants to end the agreement covering
both nuclear and conventional ground-launch missiles with ranges
between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (311 and 3,418 miles).
Many NATO diplomats have greeted the U.S. moves with resignation, saying
they would prefer to preserve the arms control treaty but that they are
now focused on limiting a new arms race.
Senior Trump administration officials tried to emphasize that Washington
is on the same page as its European allies, even though the White House
faced criticism for Trump’s decision to announce the U.S. withdrawal on
the fly last fall, before European allies had formally agreed that
Washington should pull out.
In Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg offered alliance
backing for the U.S. move, saying that it is Russia’s responsibility to
start complying with the treaty again.
“Russia is in material breach of the #INFTreaty & must use next 6
months to return to full & verifiable compliance or bear sole
responsibility for its demise. #NATO fully supports the US suspension
& notification of withdrawal from the Treaty,” Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter.
The death of the INF Treaty raises questions about the future of other
arms control agreements, including the New START pact, which limits
Russian and American deployed strategic nuclear warheads and expires in
two years.
Russian diplomats have said they are preparing for the potential end of
that treaty, for which Moscow warns it would blame Washington.
“I truly fear that the New START treaty may have the same fate as the
INF Treaty,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on
Russian television before Pompeo’s announcement. “It may just expire on
February 5th, 2021, and not be prolonged.”
If the White House and the Kremlin do not agree to extend New START, the
decision would turn the clock back to an era when Washington and Moscow
possessed nuclear arms with practically no agreed restrictions and
would risk the return of a full Cold War-style arms race.
The push by the Trump administration to withdraw from the INF Treaty
coincided with the arrival of John Bolton as White House national
security adviser. Bolton oversaw the Bush administration’s withdrawal
from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in 2002, paving the
way for the erection of American missile defense systems that Russia
long decried.
The INF Treaty has long been a bugbear for the former U.N. ambassador,
who is a skeptic of international agreements and organizations he sees
as constraining American power.
In a 2011 article in
the Wall Street Journal, Bolton and co-author Paula DeSutter contended
that the INF had outlived its usefulness. They cited a quote from the
late French president Charles de Gaulle: “Treaties, you see, are like
girls and roses: They last while they last.”
Lawmakers broke along party lines over the withdrawal announcement, although both parties called the pact flawed.
“I completely support the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw
from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty due to Russian
noncompliance,” Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) said in a statement. “It’s a bad deal for America when Russia cheats and the United States complies.”
Democrats, however, warned that ripping up the treaty was the wrong way
to steer Russia — or China — back into a treaty order more responsive to
modern weapons and threats.
“The Trump Administration is risking an arms race and undermining
international security and stability,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
(D-Calif.) said in a statement. “Russia’s brazen noncompliance with this
treaty is deeply concerning, but discarding a key pillar of our
nonproliferation security framework creates unacceptable risks.”
Trump scoffed at that argument.
“Honestly, I don’t think she has a clue; I really don’t,” Trump told
reporters at the White House. “I don’t think Nancy has a clue.”
Anton Troianovsky in Moscow, Michael Birnbaum in Brussels and Karoun Demirjian in Washington contributed to this report.