Foreign policy complexities to the fore in India 

May 29, 2019, 8:33 pm

In his second term in office Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue to find that his challenges on the foreign policy front are as exacting and as complex as his domestic chores. One of his foremost challenges locally is to generate jobs in increasing numbers for the employable who are entering the job market monthly in the tens of thousands, it is reported. However, challenges such as job creation, it is bound to be found, are tied-up considerably with the deftness and effectiveness with which the Modi administration manages its foreign policy questions.

Interestingly, this close link between domestic economic issues and foreign policy formulation and direction is not peculiar to only India in the South Asian region. The dominance of economics over most other considerations is so great currently that the foreign policy posers in focus here could be found to be common to most states of this region, big or small.

There is the case of Sri Lanka, for instance. For understandable reasons its present preoccupations are of a security nature but once Sri Lanka satisfies itself that its security chores have been satisfactorily dealt with it would need to think of long term stability and the latter could only come through ethnic and religious harmony combined with sustained economic growth and re-distributive justice. In fact, the achievement of the latter tasks will lay the basis for national security in the long term. These issues call for a deft handling of questions on a number of fronts and these challenges spare none of the states of the region.

India has been on a fine balancing act over the years on the foreign policy front but the present correlation of international political forces is such that it would be required of India to carry out this act with increasing delicacy and tact. It is reported that Prime Minister Modi’s first international state visit in his second term would be to none other than the Maldives; a small state in South Asia, like Sri Lanka. As some commentators have pointed out, this serves the purpose of underlining India’s concern for the sustenance of democracy in the Maldives but the visit is also indicative of the great importance India places on good neighbourly relations.

Viewed from this perspective, it does not strike the observer as advisable for India to keep the Pakistani Prime Minister out of the Indian Prime Minister’s upcoming swearing-in ceremony. Inasmuch as it is important for India’s closest neighbours to be on the best of terms with her always, it is crucial that India ensures that all efforts are made by her to mend fences with Pakistan. Minus such exercises even a measure of peace is inconceivable in South Asia.

It is hoped that Sri Lanka would understand the message from India coming out of Modi’s planned visit to the Maldives, and work out its implications perceptively. Opposition sections in Sri Lanka in particular have this fatal tendency of attaching disproportionate importance to extra-regional actors on resolving dilemmas confronting Sri Lanka currently on the foreign policy front but there is no getting away from the paramount importance of having cordial and mutually-beneficial ties with India. This is in consideration of India being our closest neighbour and the biggest country in the region at that.

China and Russia, for example, are unlikely to sacrifice their good relations with India for Sri Lanka’s sake, come crunch time. Besides, these states are not likely to undermine their ties with the US and the West to further Sri Lanka’s interests if such actions run contrary to their own national interests. Such are the ways of Realpolitik.

Accordingly, it would be in Sri Lanka’s legitimate interests to make the best use of India’s current regional policy emphasis on generating greater cordiality in its immediate neighbourhood. The same applies to the Maldives. In other words, India’s smaller neighbours in particular would do well to work in concert with India insofar as their best interests are served this way. Ideally, a good neighbourhood policy should be the choice of India’s closest neighbours as well.

However, India’s field of engagement in the days ahead would far transcend South Asia. Almost immediately after Modi’s visit to the Maldives he is expected to attend a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgystan and a G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. In other words, the Indian leader would be interacting with all the powers that matter currently because the two organizations in question have to do with almost all of them.

The SCO has within its fold China and Russia, for instance, and the G20 features the foremost powers of the West led by the US along with many other world heavyweights. India would be perceiving it to be in her interests to work cordially with all these powers and she cannot be at serious cross-purposes with any one of them.

Given that complexity, fluidity and ambiguity chiefly characterize the current international political and economic order, India would have no choice but to adopt a highly nuanced and flexible foreign policy. For example, she cannot afford to have long, strained ties with China, although it is plain that she is engaged in a struggle for influence and control with China in the South Asian region.

Such competition is only to be expected between two major regional powers but it would be in their economic interests in particular to relate as cordially as possible with each other. India is a major economic power in her own right, but China’s economic penetration is world wide and it would be foolhardy on a state’s part to ignore this fact.

On the other hand, India cannot afford to even briefly forget contemporary power realities which are in a state of flux. While getting on as best as she could with China it would be in her interests to be on the most cordial terms with the US and other Western powers that matter as well. This is in order to balance her ties with China and Russia and to also perpetuate her commitment to democracy and its principal values. Meanwhile, India would like to be on the best of terms with Russia in view of Russia’s recent tilt towards Pakistan and also in consideration of Russia’s attempts to regain a firm foothold in South-west Asia and Afghanistan.

India ought to be concerned about the US’ perceived manoeuvres in the Asia-Pacific but she would believe it to be in her interests to not to be at cross-purposes with the US in this theatre because of the tremendous and growing economic importance of the ASEAN region, where China’s economic links are growing.

Accordingly, a country of India’s stature cannot afford to look at the world in stark black-and-white terms. For India and other powers of her kind the world presents itself mainly in shades of grey. Their foreign policies would need to be finely calibrated to meet their prime needs. It could be said that Modi’s leadership is likely to be tested very considerably in the arena of foreign policy as well.

Hopefully, India under Modi’s Premiership, would consider it to be on its priority list to ensure that SAARC is up and running once again. BIMSTEC has its merits in comparison to SAARC no doubt, but SAARC is no spent force and should be seen as vital in re-establishing good neighbourly relations in the region.