US-Iran stand-off and the heightening of ‘world disorder’

Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei-June 26, 2019, 8:54 pm 

In these years of heightening ‘international disorder’ a military confrontation between the US and Iran could prove quite devastating for the Gulf region in particular. Hopefully, the relevant governments and their political leaders are alert to this possibility. While diplomacy of the finest and most astute kind is needed to defuse current tensions between the countries, one is compelled to agree with some Iranian quarters that the latest sanctions clamped on Iran by the US could spell ‘the permanent closure of the path to diplomacy’ between the countries.

The impending dangers are aggravated by the current climate of ‘world disorder’. Gone are the Cold War days when the international balance of power between the US and the Soviet Union could have prevented a major flare-up between intensely contending states or groups of states. The ‘certainties’ and relative stability of those times, resulting from the super powers counter-balancing and check-mating each others moves aimed at shoring-up their influence and control world wide, made for a comparatively safe world. That is, ‘mutually assured destruction’ proved its effectiveness even then.

However, the present international situation is a far cry from those safer years. To begin with, since there are no easily-definable or ideologically identifiable contending mega power blocs of the Cold War kind currently, multi-polarity rather than bipolarity has emerged as a chief structural feature of the world situation that states need to come to terms with. Besides, state actors aspiring for big power status could go about achieving their aims with relative freedom and with pronounced unaccountability. The end result is a more unsafe and unstable international political situation.

Against this backdrop, rising antagonisms between the US and Iran, over the present US sanctions-linked issues in particular, place the Gulf region at a rising risk of uncontrollable war. The US under President Donald Trump could be said to be prone to a degree of military adventurism but it could be making a fatal mistake by seeing Iran as a lesser power that could be treated dismissively. It is quite some time since Iran emerged as a dominant regional power. It would be short-sighted not to take cognizance of this basic fact in Gulf power relations.

Looking back, the Ronald Reagan administrations of the eighties too were, generally speaking, on a confrontational course with Iran, but the US of those times followed a more nuanced and discreet policy towards Iran. Iran had just emerged as a number one Islamic power and was in no mood to tone down its assertiveness, while the US under President Reagan was all out to recapture its prestige and power as the foremost super power, subsequent to the US’ defeats in the numerous proxy wars it was engaged in all over the Third World. There was also the humiliating military debacle in Vietnam that was having a depressive impact on the US.

The Reagan administration was all out to avenge these defeats but it was compelled to constantly look over its shoulder at the looming contending presence of the Soviet Union and its military alliance, the Warsaw Pact. The US was compelled to act with a greater degree of circumspection in these circumstances.

Needless to say, the world lacks a clearly-identifiable global power system today. Iran remains a regional power to contend with. Russia has made a quick come-back, after the break-up of the Soviet Union in the nineties, as a principal world power and China is fast catching-up with the US as a number one economic and military power. In the South Asian theatre India has bourgeoned into a great power but it is unlikely to cherish the prospect of being an unquestioning ally of the US.

Global power relations are at their most complex in South East Asia where almost every state within the ASEAN grouping would like to see itself as a power in its own right. Notable among these are Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. In North-east Asia, Japan and South Korea are being seen as US allies but they too would not like to play second fiddle to the US in matters that figure most in foreign relations. Besides, all these mentioned states are substantial economic powers who have a decisive impact on the world power system.

So, it is a world rife with security issues and uncertainties. Disorder rather than order is the international system’s chief feature. The US’ latest anti-Iran move of slapping punitive sanctions on a number of Iranian high profile figures, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is likely to be seen by Iran as highly provocative. Any strong retaliatory moves by Iran could aggravate tensions in the Gulf, leading to military hostilities between the US and Iran.

In the case of a US-Iran military confrontation, Britain at most, would like to team-up with the US but none other of the major states, North or South. The reason for this is the growing independence and power of these countries in relation to the US, and the pursuit by these powers of their national interests to the exclusion of other considerations, since the majority of current major powers are not obliged to ally with the US at a time of military conflict. In Cold War times ideological considerations compelled the majority of states referred to here of Asia in particular to ally with the US, but the Cold War rationale, of course, exists no longer.

Besides, Russia and China in particular would be on the ready to check-mate the US in the event of proliferating military tensions. Their common interest in containing US power would incline them to back Iran, although there is unlikely to be unconditional, unreserved support for Iran from them. However, there will be almost no takers for the US cause because the majority of countries would not like to endanger their oil supplies in the Gulf by encouraging the US in its military adventures.

Thus, it is vitally important that the US focuses on managing in a constructive manner the rising tensions in the Gulf. If there is going to be a military confrontation the US may find itself almost alone but Iran is likely to be backed by the majority of major powers since they have a common interest in containing the US.