A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Sunday, November 24, 2019
Gotabaya’s Sri Lanka: the risks ahead and how to respond



Notwithstanding some very serious electoral violations, including an incident in
which shots were fired at a bus-load of Muslim voters in Sri Lanka’s
North-West, the contest is widely regarded as having been sufficiently
free and fair for the result to stand.[1]
With Premadasa having conceded defeat, Gotabaya Rajapaksa (or ‘Gota’ as
he is commonly known) was duly sworn in as President yesterday. He takes
the reigns from outgoing President Maithripala Sirisena, who was
elected in January 2015 following the surprise defeat of Mahinda
Rajapaksa, Gotabaya’s brother. It is widely expected that Gotabaya will
now seek to install Mahinda as Prime Minister.
The shape of things to come
As a neutral non-partisan organisation, we accept the mandate granted to
Gotabaya Rajapaksa and take no view as to how the people of Sri Lanka
chose to exercise their democratic rights.
That said, Gota’s ascent to power raises some serious concerns about the
future of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law on the island.
To understand these concerns, it is necessary to look at both what he
has done, and what he says he will do.
To
be sure, Gotabaya is not just a ‘strongman’. He is an alleged war
criminal, who presided over the deaths of tens of thousands of Tamil
civilians. As Defence Secretary (2005-2015) he bore command
responsibility for the actions of troops during the bloody final stages
of the civil war in 2009; actions which multiple UN investigations have said would likely constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity if established in a court of law. He is on record as
suggesting that hospitals and civilians were legitimate military
targets. And he is credibly believed (including as referenced in a US
State Department report) to have directly ordered the extra-judicial killings of surrendering rebel fighters and their family members.
Then there is Gotabaya’s record after the war,
a period in which he and his brothers mounted an unprecedented assault
on Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions, plundered state resources, and
sought to violently eliminate dissent (including through the use of
disappearances and torture on an industrial scale). In addition to a corruption case in
the Sri Lankan courts for alleged crimes committed during this time,
Gotabaya currently faces two civil in the United States: one for allegedly ordering the torture of eleven individuals (nine Tamils and two Sinhalese), the other for his alleged role in the assassination of a prominent newspaper editor.
There is little evidence of Gotabaya’s intention to chart a radically different course now that he is President. Standing
on a national security ticket and emphasising the need for
“discipline”, he was cheerily dubbed ‘the Terminator’ by his family and
close supporters on the campaign trail. Among his key pledges were ripping up the government’s commitments to deal with legacy of the war, and bringing to an end the
few investigations that have been commenced into allegations of serious
human rights violations by members of the security sector.
Red flags
Given the very real possibility of an increase in the number and
severity of human rights violations in Sri Lanka, it is important to
understand the key risks as well as the kinds of checks, balances, and
levers which might be used to mitigate them. Below we examine five key
‘red flags’ to watch for in the coming weeks and months, and consider
how those outside of Sri Lanka might effectively pre-empt and respond to
them.
1. Immediate risk of reprisals to dissidents

Members of the international community should closely monitor the
situation for at-risk individuals and groups and take all the steps at
their disposal, including offers of safe passage, to guarantee their
safety. Given that the diplomatic community have encouraged citizens to
participate freely in Sri Lanka’s civic space since 2015, this is not
simply a matter of doing the right thing. It is also a matter of
responsibility.
2. Reneging on commitments to reconciliation and accountability
Unsurprisingly, Gotabaya has already stated that he intends to
rip up Sri Lanka’s pledges on reconciliation and accountability for
war-time violations – pledges contained in a UN Human Rights Council
resolution that was adopted with the support of the government in
October 2015. There is also speculation that
he could seek to actively reverse what limited progress has been made
as part of this reform agenda, including, for example, by dismantling
Sri Lanka’s Office on Missing Persons.
To stop that from happening, and to limit the damage if it does, members
of the international community must signal clearly to the incoming
President the diplomatic and economic consequences that will result
should he chose to pull the plug on his government’s earlier promises.
That should include, at the very minimum, a commitment to continued
scrutiny via the Human Rights Council, with or without the government’s
support. But it should also entail a pledge to pursue accountability for war-time violations unilaterally where domestic political will is lacking.
3. Anti-minority ethnic violence
The past few years have seen several very serious, and at times deadly,
episodes of orchestrated anti-Muslim rioting by Sinhala Buddhist
hardliners in Sri Lanka. The election of Gotabaya, who has previously patronised the
groups believed to be behind such mob violence, and who stood and won
on an explicitly ethno-nationalist ticket, has stirred fears that
minorities could become targets yet again.
Following a campaign period which saw, according to one monitoring organisation, “unprecedented levels of racism”,
the international community will have a vital role to play in
monitoring hate speech and responding to the attendant risk of
identity-based violence.
4. An emboldened security state
While recent years have seen some progress in returning military
occupied lands to their rightful owners, and a welcome decrease in the
visible presence of the armed forces on the streets, militarisation in
the Tamil majority North-East of the country remains a key concern.[2] Under
Gotabaya, who has prioritised the need for national security and
glorified the role of the armed forces, many are worried that that
militarisation could re-intensify, carrying with it the risk of further harassment,
intimidation, and surveillance of the civilian population. There are
also fears that the “deep state” that Gotabaya is alleged to have orchestrated to such chilling effect in his role as Defence Secretary could yet again come to the fore.
To prevent that from happening, the international community ought to
closely monitor the situation on the ground and respond to any increases
in militarisation or security sector repression with appropriate
sanctions. While a review of security cooperation with the Sri Lankan
armed forces is already long overdue – especially in view of the
appointment of alleged war criminal Shavendra Silva to army commander – this would be the appropriate place to start in bringing pressure to bear on this issue.
5. Threats to the rule of law and the Constitution
Finally, the election of Gotabaya (who was this time last year engaged
in an unsuccessful coup attempt to install his brother as Prime
Minister) has raised concerns that Sri Lanka’s constitution and rule of
law could yet again be put to the test. Indeed, there are already fears that
should the current Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe refuse to step
aside on his own accord, a re-run of last autumn’s attempt to oust him
could be on the cards. More broadly, there is a prevailing worry about
how the Rajapaksas’ proven lack of respect for the independence of key
institutions, including the judiciary, could play out this time round.
Recent experience in Sri Lanka underscores the value of members of the
international community (and especially institutions such as the
Commonwealth) speaking up in a unified and principled manner.
Correspondingly, it shows the harm that
can be done when they stay silent and turn a blind eye. In what could
be a very challenging period ahead, they must approach with their eyes
open, and use their voice.
Business as usual?
In sum, the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa is likely to pose serious
challenges for the promotion and protection of human rights in Sri Lanka
– challenges which will demand the international community to depart
from a ‘business as usual’ approach to working with the government. As
we highlight in our recent report, A Decade of Impunity, recent
international engagement with Sri Lanka has failed to help bring about
the accountability that is so desperately needed to prevent a recurrence
of serious human rights violations. The election of an alleged
perpetrator to one of Sri Lanka’s highest offices, arguably a symptom of
that failure, is also an opportunity for the international community to
change course. They should seize it.
Footnotes:
[1] According to one reporter,
the “European Union election observation mission concluded that the Sri
Lankan presidential election was largely free of violence and
technically well-managed, but that unregulated campaign spending, abuse
of state resources and media bias affected the level playing field.”
[2] Recent research has revealed that in some areas the civilian-soldier ratio remains as high as two to one, with the army heavily involved in several aspects of civilian life, including the running of pre-schools and farms.