After Corona & Curfew: A Soft Landing, ‘Herd Immunity’ & An Easter Memorial

By Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake –MARCH 28, 2020

Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake

Them belly full but we hungry
A hungry mob is an angry mob
A rain a-fall but the dirt, it tough
A pot a-cook but the food no ‘nough

–Bob Marley and the Wailers

The Government of Sri Lanka has yet to respond effectively, rationally, and in a manner that balances the physical and mental well-being of citizens, their livelihoods, and the economy, as well as, democratic rights such as to information, with available in-country data on Covid-19. 

An indefinite and economically crippling curfew, now in its 8th day, has been imposed on the entire country and citizenry, indiscriminately, with little information provided and less logic, if the data and numbers of Covid 19 cases in the island nation are an indication. 

In a country of 22 million, there have been 109 cases with many recoveries and NO deaths – so far – due to the superb efforts of frontline health workers. Many of the Covid 19 cases in Sri Lanka were tourists and those returned from abroad. Yet unlike in badly Covid 19 hit UK or the US where despite the crisis, food and grocery stores were open and people encouraged and able to go out for daily exercise, Sri Lankan citizens are under continuous curfew. 

The softer notion of “social distance” is less used. Those who venture out for food or exercise – which may also boost their immune systems to withstand the virus- risk arrest and/ or their vehicles being confiscated in Sri Lanka. Super markets and corner shops where people may buy food have been shut indefinitely, with many unsure where their next meal may come from. Only the State Pharmacies, Osu Salas, are open at this time, although transmission of the Covid 19 virus appears relatively low and the illness appears to mutate to relatively mild in hot and humid Sri Lanka, similar to data from other tropical regions of the world.  Those who may have colds and coughs meanwhile fear stigma

While, information is scarce in Sri Lanka as the press and media are not considered essential services unlike in India, state and private television channels regularly run interviews with military and police officers or the Government Medical Officers Association (GMOA). The latter keep warning that only a total shut down of the country could prevent the spread of the infection. The GMOA ‘experts’ speak of the need to obey the indefinite lock-down and some claim that 500 people may be infected to justify prolonged and indefinite curfews. 

Economic Impact of Indefinite Curfew

The economy and citizens’ livelihoods are hurting on all sides at this time, as in many other parts of the world. Country-wide curfew in Sri Lanka has shut down both economic production and consumption. The Cinnamon Grand Hotel, one of Colombo’s oldest five star hotels which survived last year’s Easter Sunday suicide attacks is now shuttered after decades – a result of the blow dealt by the lockdowns. Workers, young and old, are out of work and wages, without funds to purchase food and other essentials. Many free trade zone workers who are young and hence less vulnerable to the virus which mainly targets the elderly population, have nevertheless lost their livelihoods and are being ‘assisted’ to migrate back to their villages by the Sri Lanka Army and their employers. 

While the government claims that food is available and being delivered to homes at reduced prices, calls for food provision deliveries are unanswered. Simultaneously, daily wage, service and gig economy workers and those in small and medium enterprise (SMEs), are out of jobs and income because of the curfew. They lack the cash to buy food and other essentials – even if available. 

Meanwhile, jobless and wage-less “curfew violators” who go out looking for food are deemed anti-national and selfish, and threatened with arrest despite the fact that more people die due to normal flu, dengue, poverty and malnutrition related illness in the country. On Friday March 27, 1,1670 curfew violators were arrested within 24 hours bringing the total to 5185 after the regime arbitrarily revoked a brief lifting of 4 days long non-stop curfew, according to Ada Derana SMS messages. What about the right to food?

In the absence of tourists and local clientele several luxury hotels have been offered as makeshift hospitals if needed. However, plans are on-going to convert buildings occupied by the Voice of America (VOA) station into a Covid 19 hospital, despite the fact that there have been few new Covid cases, and full recoveries, and there are plenty of hospital beds and if needed five-star makeshift space available. Sri Lanka has designated 18 hospitals to accept COVID-19 patients, but most of the confirmed patients are treated at the main infectious disease hospital in Colombo.

The democratic rights or the people, such as the, right to information has been likewise stifled with doctored messages. While the qualifications of the Minister of Health for the job are not obvious at this time, one GMOA expert praised her for willingness to listen to the GMOA and boasted on television about Sri Lanka’s brilliant Covid 19 response while speaking with schadenfreude about the numbers of dead and struggle of healthcare workers in hard hit Italy and Spain.

An exit strategy from Curfew: Herd Immunity

The country needs an exit strategy from endless curfew, especially as there is increased evidence that the virus mutates to mild in hot and humid climates as in Sri Lanka and may tropical parts of Africa and Asia. Endless curfews and confining people in doors for extended periods of time impact on physical fitness and mental well-being. There has been an increase in reported cases of domestic violence due to the stress of being confined at this time. 

Dr. Michael O. Favorov immunologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, USA, has stated clearly that lock downs delay but cannot prevent spread of Corona 19. The long term solution is either for immunization by vaccine or for the flu to run its course through 50-60 percent of the population, enabling development of anti-bodies to the virus and what is termed ‘herd immunity’. 

Given that there is no vaccine for Covid 19 at this time anywhere in the world and nor envisaged for a while and treatment is symptomatic, ‘herd immunity’ has been the long term strategy of countries like the United Kingdom (UK), where even the Prime Minister and Prince Charles have got symptoms, indicating likelihood that many more have got the Covid 19 and been either asymptomatic or very mild.

Researchers at the University of Melbourne, who have mapped the immune responses from one of country’s first coronavirus patients, the bulk of those infected experience only mild symptoms, it is severe or critical in 6% of patients. The virus mortality rate is about 3.4%, the WHO has estimated. While monitoring the situation for new cases the end point would be working to develop herd immunity while self-isolation for those with underlying health issues and the elderly is needed.

Herd immunity means that once 60-70 percent of the population have got the Corvid 19 flu and develop the anti-bodies, the rest of the population and vulnerable people like elders who have been protected would be safe from getting the virus and this particular flu epidemic would be over in Sri Lanka. It is known that the virus does poorly in warm climates. Indeed, it may be better to get the mild stand of the COVID 19 in this hot season in Sri Lanka and acquire herd immunity and for South Asian populations to develop anti-bodies at this time, rather than later when the temperature drops in the monsoon season when rains also bring other diseases like Dengue. 

Being a Middle Income Country (MIC), with significant tax payer funds invested in the education and health systems, Sri Lanka has one of the best health care systems in the South Asian region, with many outstanding doctors and health professionals. There are even are robots to assist at the infectious disease hospital (IDH). The health system may be tested but able to meet the Covid 19 virus challenge without causing further economic and social stress if and when the inevitable second wave of infection comes. 

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