Trouble in Nepal

 Prime Minister KP Oli and contender Prachanda indulge in a power tussle as China has aimed its salvage operation at maintaining unity in the NCP

by Ashok K Mehta-December 30, 2020

The vertical split in the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was inevitable. After all, it was an artificial alliance of two ideological variants of Marxist-Leninist ideology and bitter rivalry between two unrelenting leaders — Prachanda, who led the Maoists in the civil war and set the stage for transformation in Nepal, and Prime Minister KP Oli (United Marxist-Leninist) who created the tsunami of nationalism to sweep the polls on a largely anti-India sentiment. The merger of the two parties and power-sharing on the basis of votes won was at the root of the “two-and-a-half years each” agreement between Oli and Prachanda becoming untenable. The attempt at gluing fractures following multiple crises was also bound to fail.

The key actors in Nepal’s make-and-mend process are President BD Bhandari and Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi. For China, it is a no-holds-barred effort to maintain unity in the NCP which it had helped to forge and establish primacy in Nepal over India for the first time in nearly 200 years. Its ongoing salvage operation includes dispatch of a four-member Chinese Communist Party (CCP) delegation to Kathmandu over the weekend to patch up the Oli-Prachanda feud with whatever it takes. China wants Oli to remain the Prime Minister, with Prachanda and former Prime Minister Madhav Nepal as the party’s co-chairs, no revival of Parliament and elections, whenever feasible. But the players are keeping their options open.

Global Times, though, has reported that China has no preference for any party; it just wants a stable Government. India’s anodyne statement that “we have noted recent political developments in Nepal; these are internal matters for Nepal to decide as per its democratic process”, does not mean that it is a bystander. The split has also destabilised six of the seven NCP provincial governments.

While both sides have appealed to the Election Commission for ownership of the party’s name and symbol, the Supreme Court will decide whether the dissolution of the House was legal and whether its revival is possible, and start the hearings next week. The mid-term elections slated for April/May 2021 are unlikely to be held on time. Oli has expanded his Cabinet, accommodating several of Prachanda’s people. Conspicuous is the lack of support and empathy for Oli’s unconstitutional and undemocratic actions with nearly all political parties and civil society condemning his move, the latter even calling it ‘Oli-garchy’.

On the streets of Kathmandu, people are saying “India has done it”, or that “There was a phone call from Delhi.” Some reports are suggesting that Oli and/or Foreign Minister Pradip Gyawali would visit New Delhi shortly, the latter mentioned on Monday by Nepali Ambassador to India Nilambar Acharya. When India was the dominant power in that country, Nepal’s crises were blamed on New Delhi’s “micro-management”. Now China is being accused of interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs after Yanqi began her latest round of interventions. Last week’s protest held outside the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu was an extremely rare event as the media and public angst is generally reserved against India.

The Nepalese are linking the “phone call” to the flying visit to Kathmandu in October by R&AW chief Samant Goel, who had a long conversation with Oli that extended beyond midnight. If India is indeed behind the friendly persuasion of Oli in dissolving Parliament, it is a victory for the “agencies”, the name by which R&AW is called in Nepal. For India, the breakup of the NCP is a triumph for NSA Ajit Doval.

In the past, the “agencies” have failed also spectacularly: Preventing the Dasehra alliance of the Left parties in October 2017 or Nepal’s Constitution-making coup in 2015. On both occasions, India was stumped. Chinese intelligence saved the short-lived Oli-Prachanda coalition Government once in 2017 but not the second time when Prachanda split and joined the Nepali Congress-led coalition. China supported the Left Alliance in the 2017 elections and the merger of the Alliance into the NCP.

The CCP and the NCP enjoy fraternal relations and the Chinese party’s ideologues have been teaching the NCP cadres the “Xi Jinping Thought”. China is invested heavily in Nepal — politically, economically, militarily and people to people. They will not easily give up their recent pre-eminence in Nepal.

Two scenarios are being predicted. First, no revival of Parliament and no elections as scheduled, with Oli carrying on as the caretaker Prime Minister indefinitely. Informed observers say this is an Oli-fixed match that India is supporting. The second scenario envisions restoration of Parliament, a coalition Government formed by Prachanda-NCP with support from the Nepali Congress and the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal. This combination along with its variant — Deuba supporting Oli in forming the Government — has been doing the rounds for a long time. There is a third outcome which the Chinese are pursuing: Same as the first scenario but with the NCP reunited and Prachanda and Madhav Nepal as party co-chairs. No one has so far petitioned for a caretaker Government for elections like the one in 2012 headed by Chief Justice Khilraj Regmi.

In 1994, Prime Minister GP Koirala’s dissolution of the House was upheld by the Supreme Court. In 1995, Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikari dissolved his minority Government but the House was revived. In 2002, King Gyanendra dismissed Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba for failure to hold elections, calling him “incompetent”.

The same year, when the Deuba faction split from the NC under GP Koirala to form the NC (Democratic), the symbol and name of the party was retained by the Koirala faction. Consequent to the lessons from frequent turnover of Governments (11 Prime Ministers in 12 years), the 2015 republican Constitution made no provision for dissolution of the House.

Neither Oli nor Prachanda want to be seen as splitting the party. Currently, the deck is arrayed in favour of Prachanda retaining the party’s name and symbol, the Sun. He has the support of 300 of the 441 Central Committee members and 100 of the 176 lawmakers. While the EC will take a call on the ownership of the party’s name and symbol, the Supreme Court will determine the legality and wisdom of terminating Parliament after 31 months, with more than two years of its term remaining.

The Doval game plan appears to be to support both sides: Oli to keep Parliament in abeyance and hold elections later, and Prachanda to keep the party divided even if the House is restored. China is betting on both too, but to keep its flock together. Oli’s Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel came up with this gem: “China should be happy. It has two NCPs — one in Government and the other trying to restore the old one.” Best of both worlds is not a Happy 2021 for Nepal!

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)