Thursday, December 31, 2020
The New Year which dawns tomorrow will bring about fresh challenges to our major political parties in keeping with the seismic changes in the domestic political landscape seen in 2020. The survival of some of these parties will depend on how they adapt to these challenging circumstances.
The year 2020 saw quite a few landmark changes. The ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) emerged as the major political party in the country after its wins at the 2019 Presidential Election which brought President Gotabaya Rajapaksa into power and its massive victory at the 2020 General Election.
The win at the General Election was particularly remarkable because it delivered 145 seats to the SLPP. For all practical purposes however, it does have a two-thirds majority. This was demonstrated when the 20th Amendment was brought before Parliament and was passed with 156 MPs voting for it.
With firm control of the Presidency and Parliament, the SLPP has confirmed its stranglehold on power. With the 20th Amendment to the Constitution now in place, it has received the mandate it asked for- a strong Executive Presidency which will be in total control of governance of the nation.
It is a remarkable success story for a political party which came in to being in late 2016, following former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s defeat at the 2015 Presidential Election, followed by then President Maithripala Sirisena taking over the leadership of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
It is well known that the SLPP was conceptualised by former minister Basil Rajapaksa. With the 20th Amendment removing the bar on dual citizens entering Parliament, Rajapaksa is tipped to re-enter Parliament on the SLPP’s National List and is likely to be accommodated in the Cabinet of Ministers.
New Constitution
In 2021, the main objective of the SLPP will be to further consolidate its power, so it could implement the programme envisioned by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The next step in this ambitious project is the drafting of a new Constitution for Sri Lanka. Already, a team of legal experts have begun that arduous task.
The SLPP feels that the current Constitution is not well geared to meet the challenges of a modern nation as well as the threats of separatism. It will also focus on issues such as Proportional Representation (PR) in the electoral system and the question of devolution of power among ethnic groups.
It is also likely to be defined based on the experiences of the 2018 constitutional crisis, when there were significant differences of opinion between then President Sirisena and then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The new Constitution is likely to put in place provisions to avert similar situations.
The biggest loser in the political arena in 2020 was the United National Party (UNP). Ousted from power in late 2019, the 74-year-old party which has governed the country for decades was due to contest the 2020 General Elections and become the major opposition party. It was not to be.
The UNP spiralled into a leadership crisis when General Elections were called, with party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who has held that position since 1994 despite a string of electoral defeats refusing to relinquish office and hand over the reins to his obvious successor, Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa.
Negotiations were held between the Wickremesinghe and Premadasa factions until the eleventh hour but were unsuccessful. This is because of Wickremesinghe’s obstinacy and some of his loyalists such as Ravi Karunanayake, Akila Viraj Kariyawasam and Vajira Abeywardena urged him to stay on.
In the end, the Premadasa faction went its own way, forming the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) which contested the General Elections by itself, running head to head with the UNP. The SJB won a decent tally of 54 seats. The UNP was routed countrywide, winning just one seat on the National List.
The extent of the damage done to the UNP is reflected by the fact that the party has not been able to fill the solitary National List seat it is entitled to because of factional infighting, lack of leadership and a general sense of disarray and disorganisation which has permeated to the rank and file of the party.
UNP leadership crisis
The coming year will be a make-or-break year for the UNP. Firstly, it has to resolve its leadership crisis. At 71 years, Wickremesinghe has said he will retire but is lingering on, fuelling speculation that this is yet another of his stalling tactics to ensure that he will retain the leadership eventually.
Ruwan Wijewardene has been appointed as Deputy Leader of the UNP. However, Navin Dissanayake has also publicly signalled his intention to stake his claim for the leadership of the party. This could lead to another bitter leadership contest which is hardly what the party needs at this crucial time.
Since its Parliamentary representation is virtually zero - and will be so for the lifetime of this Parliament - it is difficult for the UNP to maintain a public profile until the next General Election. It needs to be a viable opposition outside of Parliament but that is a tough task without proper leadership.
The SJB is on a better footing with 46 parliamentarians remaining loyal to it, most of them former UNP stalwarts. It is the largest Opposition party in Parliament. Its leader Sajith Premadasa is the Leader of the Opposition. Yet, it has miles to go to become an alternative to the ruling SLPP.
In 2021, the SJB will be looking to the SLPP for inspiration. That is because the SLPP, a breakaway faction of the SLFP, propelled itself from being the newest political party to being in power in just three years, laying to rest the myth that the Sri Lankans only vote for established political parties.
That this is not the case has now been proven several times over. The SLFP formed alliances with the ‘Chair’ and the ‘Betel Leaf’. Maithripala Sirisena won under a hastily cobbled coalition under the ‘Swan’ symbol. The SLPP has now registered several victories with the ‘Lotus Bud’ (Pohottuwa) as its symbol.
The SJB will be wishing that it can achieve a similar feat with the ‘Telephone’ symbol although hope is not lost that under the new UNP leadership, Premadasa will be invited to take over the Grand Old Party’s reins once again. Thus, the SJB too is in a state of flux and 2021 will be crucial to its future.
The fate of the SLFP also hangs in the balance next year. Its plight is similar to that of the UNP, being a political force of yesteryear that governed the country for decades but now reduced to being only a partner in the SLPP lead coalition. Its leader, Maithripala Sirisena is not even a Cabinet Minister.
In the lead up to the vote on the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, there was speculation that the SLFP would be offered more Cabinet representation in return for its support. That did not happen. The harsh political reality is that the SLFP is not in a position to dictate terms to the SLPP right now.
Former President Sirisena gave vent to his frustrations last week, saying that the SLFP will have to review its support to the SLPP at Provincial Council polls, if its candidates are not allocated sufficient positions in nomination lists. However, such tough talk has not been backed by actions in the past.
The other major party facing a challenge in 2021 is the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). It is no longer the undisputed representative of the Tamil community in the North and the East with several other parties challenging its policies and credentials as reflected in the results of the August 2020 General Election.
Northern and Eastern Provincial Councils
The first challenge the TNA will face will come in the form of elections to the Northern and Eastern Provincial Councils, if they are indeed held in 2021. The TNA has been accused of being a silent partner in the previous Government’s decision to postpone provincial polls from time to time.
The TNA has recorded an erosion of its support in the North and the East due in part to its complacency but also because of its tacit endorsement of some of the actions of the previous Government. If Provincial Council elections are held in 2021, it will be a critical test of popularity for the party.
Currently, the Government too is in two minds about the Provincial Polls, with one school of thought arguing that Provincial Councils may not be required if the proposed new Constitution generates a new instrument for the devolution of power. This is matter that is likely to be resolved in the coming year.
The other major party in Parliament, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) again struggled at the polls despite its high-profile presence in the media. The party should analyse why its policies fail to attract votes at elections despite having politicians who have not been tainted with corruption.
The year that dawns tomorrow promises to be an exciting one for Sri Lanka even if there are no major polls scheduled. It will be crucial for the futures of at least three major political parties- the UNP, the SJB and the SLFP- and will therefore also be vital for the future of democracy in the country.
