The road ahead could be very bumpy, with big swings in our weather, but it also looks to be different from the exceptionally warm and snowless December.

We predict temperatures to average between 36.5 and 38.5 degrees, which is within one degree of the most recent (1991-2020) 30-year average (37.5 degrees) and slightly colder than last year (38.6 degrees). For precipitation, we believe January can deliver between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain and melted snow, close to the average of 2.86 inches and wetter than last year’s 1.93 inches. We expect between 3 and 6 inches of snow, close to the average of 4.9 inches.

Normally, with La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, Washington experiences generally mild and dry conditions but, at least for this January, the computer weather models are favoring a strong chunk of cold air in western Canada to finally break free and advance in waves across the Lower 48. As a result, Washington is favored to see three cold pushes in the next two weeks.

Check out this visual buffet of temperature outlooks for the United States for the first half of January (top row) and the second half (bottom row) from different models:

Temperature difference from average predicted by three different models for the first half (top) and second half (bottom) of January. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Notice that Washington sits right on the fence between mild conditions in the Southeast and cold weather in the Midwest. La Niña patterns tend to favor the coldest weather from Chicago to Calgary, as shown on most maps above, but the eastern extension should reach the East Coast at times, too.

Having Washington on that boundary between warm and cold means that storm tracks should also travel that route. This is shown fairly clearly on the NOAA CFS model month-ahead outlook (mean of the most recent 20 model runs) for temperature (left) and precipitation (right) departures from normal:

CFS model predicted temperature (left) and precipitation (right) differences from normal during January. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Notice that the model projects near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. At first glance, this is an exciting potential for a snow-starved city. However, during La Niña, we often see the weather swing from warm and wet to cold and dry — meaning more rain than snow.

With that said, the models still hint at snow opportunities over the next two weeks. The American and European modeling systems both predict near-average amounts of snow during the first half of January:

American (left) and European (right) modeling systems both show the potential for several inches of snow during the first half of January in the Washington region. (StormVistaWxModels.com)

Although models tend to overdo snow forecasts, it seems we have a legitimate chance to see some of it even if we cut their predicted amounts by half. That said, most recent Januarys have seen below-average amounts, the exceptions being 2019 (11.5 inches) and 2016 (18.8 inches).