Putin’s Self-Inflicted Fiasco

By Kumar David –MARCH 2, 2022

Prof. Kumar David

Ukraine joining NATO and/or the stationing nuclear weapons is a red line that neither the people of Russia nor a government that wishes to survive in domestic politics can permit to be crossed. This column for months has said so. But the offensive that began on 23 February was premature, unpopular, excessive and the outcome is doubtful; diplomatic options had not been exhausted. Putin is said to be a master strategist but this time he has blundered. He promised the world that he would not invade Ukraine and then did just that. The 170,000 troops he sent in are inadequate for the onerous task the Russian military has been assigned of taking and holding Ukraine for any length of time. As of this time of writing (1 March) not a single Ukrainian city has fallen to the Russians. Frustrated by this slow progress, enraged by French high-seas piracy in seizing a Russian cargo vessel and flustered by a tornado of sanctions and illegal acquisition of Russian bank assets, Putin has put his nuclear arsenal on alert. Is it bluff to distract from his cock-up? For a long game he needed a larger force, deeper pockets, careful explanation and preparation of Russian and world opinion and global alliances. He did none of this.

It is true that the US, NATO, capitalist Europe and the government in Kiev have for months if not years brushed aside Russia’s unquestionably justified security concerns. But Putin should have persisted in these efforts until Kiev made a practical move to membership. A decades old clause in the Ukrainian Constitution does not amount to an imminent move. Yes, if Ukraine’s accession to membership was imminent it is tantamount to a declaration of war but that was not the case. However, what is far more sinister and dangerous is that the US and NATO have lied time again promising not to expand NATO up to the Russian border and broken that pledge every time inching ever closer.

The two most important presentations you can access at this time giving a general background are by distinguished American scholar and Professor at Chicago University, John Mearsheimer;

Current situation:

Background (A perceptive talk given in 2015!):

Four European invasions inflicted cataclysmic suffering on the Russian people; a Swedish invasion in 1708-09, occupation of European Russia including Moscow by Napoleon’s Grand Army in 1812, World War I and Hitler’s devastation of Russia from its Western border all the way to the gates of Leningrad and Stalingrad. The invasion by Charles XII of Sweden during the Great Northern War, a monarchical contest between the sovereigns of Russia, Poland, and Denmark in 1707-09 was against Peter the Great. It began in January 1708 and ended with the Charles’ defeat at the Battle of Poltava in July 1709. Russia carried out its famed “scorched earth policy” employed again against the Grand Army and the Wehrmacht, one and two centuries later, respectively, at enormous cost. In WW2 the USSR lost 25 million men and women, more than all other combatants in the European theatre combined and suffered catastrophic devastation. These are seared into the national consciousness.

Putin’s remark “Russia’s security concerns are non-negotiable” is just what this column repeatedly predicted months ago but his military flop has wrecked his case. On the other side Biden and court jester Boris are playing to recoup domestic approval ratings. How may it end? Permanent occupation is infeasible – maybe a deal with Zelenskyy, or a coup in Kiev, or maybe Putin will agree to let the UN replace his “peace keepers” by a battalion or two of the traditional UN type, but no way will he go back on recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent countries. A compromise has to be worked out, there is no other way in this age of dismal cynicism.

The Ukrainian air-force and air defences have been partly destroyed, its puny navel capability boxed in, but the army is fighting with resolve, civilians are mobilising and neo-Nazis are taking a prominent role; all bad news for Russia. A small country is no match for the Russian juggernaut which is probably taking the opportunity to field-test new weapons systems. Putin has now offered Kiev conditions for stopping the offensive; an undertaking never to join NATO and a promise to never station nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Similar what the Americans did to Cuba in 1962. Kiev should accept the conditions though it will anger America and NATO. In truth is it Putin who is being naïve? Has he not learnt from repeated false promises since 1991? But he has no alternative now; he wants sanctions which will bite deep lifted. The West is to blame for not making it clear from the beginning that Ukraine would never be allowed to join NATO. Why did it not do so? Because it needed a handle to screw the Russians, but the sorcerer’s practices are now out of control. The West’s clear objective now is to crush a Russia that is not under its control. It may win because Putin has stumbled.

Read More