Geopolitical re-alignment of Europe, will it work?

In the Ukrainian War, NATO and the West have been niggling President Putin over a long period, trying to offer membership to neutral Finland and has now succeeded in their strategy in getting him to do “a knee jerk reaction,” by changing the status quo?

by Victor Cherubim-17 April 2022

Russia we are told, has moved around 3000 troops to the Finnish border along with military equipment in recent days, in an attempt to “threaten” the world, perhaps, Finland from joining NATO. 

Since Russia’s special mission into Ukraine both Finland and Sweden are looking to the West and are quite naturally concerned of Russia under President Putin, could also invade them. What was once a neutral country like Finland, has today made the Finns view its neighbour the Russian Federation as a “significant military threat” since 24 February 2022?

The last war – the Soviet-Finnish Winter war which lasted from 30 November 1939 to March 1940 ended in a peace treaty, Moscow Peace Treaty 13 March 1940, between the neighbours forcing Finland to cede 11% of its territory to the Soviet Union. Though Finland declared itself neutral at the start of World War II, for the Soviets, victory came at a heavy cost.

The Ukrainian war, was it connived? 

In the Ukrainian War, NATO and the West have been niggling President Putin over a long period, trying to offer membership to neutral Finland and has now succeeded in their strategy in getting him to do “a knee jerk reaction,” by changing the status quo?. 

However, Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Anderson, to keep the peace until recently, has rejected calls to join the Western Alliance, NATO on the pretext that it would be futile and destabilise this area of Europe, which comparative was a peace haven for over nearly a century, in the White Sea, the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea, all arms of the Arctic Ocean.

But, as US veteran, former Secretary of State, Henry Kissington, has observed, the way to distract any nation is to “drive them to fight two battles on two fronts”. There is a lesson that it is hard to concentrate on both fronts.

To political observers this is what NATO has in mind to destroy the might of Russia.

Finland’s Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, has now informed President Putin, “We make our own decisions”. Is this what President Putin was waiting to hear? 

The fallacy in war “staying neutral”?

The big advantage of both countries, although they are neutral, they are both “big spenders” on defence, just like neutral Switzerland. In fact, both Scandinavian neighbours have given a boost for NATO now by their populations, in large numbers support joining the Alliance. We are told 84% of Finns view Russia as a “significant military threat” since 24 February 2022. Who knows whether both Finland and Sweden will join NATO sometime this summer?

We are also informed that Russia’s Ministry of Defence has warned they will rebalance the situation. This takes me back to the Soviet days, when the Red Army in Finland, coming back strongly, their command structure reorganised, while the Finns resisted for three months with little overseas assistance?  

Russia’s military campaign v Ukraine’s economic campaign

Russia’s military campaign is strangely supported by revenue flows from the sale of gas and oil to European countries. In 2021 EU energy imports from Russia was worth £82 billion (EU 99 bn.). Since the start of the war, it was the master plan of Russia for the EU to provide more funding to Russia, to continue the war, than it was possible to provide to support to Ukraine.

Ukraine however, faces horrific challenges amid Russia’s ongoing war, fighting a war on its own. The challenge of rebuilding Ukraine is an almost impossible task. The near obliteration of towns and cities of Ukraine is a massive task on the horizon.

The Centre for Economic Policy and Research estimates it will cost between Euro 200 billion (£170 bn.) to Euro 500 billion (£460 bn.).It is the suggestion that some of this cost will be recovered from seizure of assets and oil taxes with rough estimate of Euro 500 billion. 

The biggest question is the time factor or how many decades it will take to rebuild Ukraine?

Will it be a Marshall Plan for Ukraine, who knows?