Deepening Crisis & Political Muddling

By Rajan Philips –JUNE 12, 2022

Rajan Philips

“I can’t go as a failed president” – Gotabaya Rajapaksa

“I am the crisis Prime Minister” – Ranil Wickremesinghe

“Our family is better at politics than at governance” – Basil Rajapaksa

It is now a month after Ranil Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister. Apart from his plethora of statements, endless announcement of committees, and the eccentric suggestion for a whole new ‘youth parliament,’ there is no change in the country’s day to day economic life. It is no exaggeration to say that without India’s almost daily shipment of supplies, Sri Lanka will not be able to meet its daily requirements of essentials. Is India going to be the sole source for essential supplies until agreements are reached with the IMF? Talks with IMF take time and both the IMF and the World Bank have indicated that no financing arrangement will be possible until an acceptable macroeconomic framework is in place. IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice told reporters in Washington last week that it is still “too early” to indicate either the magnitude of IMF financing or the timing of its agreement. The picture cannot be grimmer.

Without an IMF agreement including debt restructuring, the Sri Lankan government cannot approach individual countries for supplementary assistance which will be needed in the short to medium term. In obvious desperation the government has asked United Nations help to mobilize international assistance to meet the country’s urgent needs in health care, food and agriculture, and emergency protection. The UN agency in Sri Lanka has already launched a Humanitarian Needs and Priorities (HNP) Plan, calling for US$47.2 million for providing assistance to 1.7 million people affected by the current crisis. An estimated 5.7 million women, children and men are in need of immediate life-saving assistance. These are the stark realities.

But there is no desperation or urgency on the political front. Even as the economic crisis deepens, politics has shifted back to its business as usual mode of operation. It is classic muddling-through mode in parliament despite the burning crisis all around. Last week was full of muddling political moves, none of them with any concern for the economic crisis. Every move was self-serving political jostling.

The week began with the usually uncommunicative President opening himself to Colombo’s foreign media last Monday and offering somewhat of a resigned ultimatum. “I can’t go as a failed president,” he said. “I have been given a mandate for five years. I will not contest again.” The President’s statement is at once a soft ultimatum, an admission of failure and resignation to being a one-term President. All of which are significant victories for Aragalaya.

The President’s interview was followed by the Prime Minister who in fact has been making statement after statement almost to the point of pre-occupational rambling. Last week before addressing parliament yet again, Ranil Wickremesinghe called himself “the crisis Prime Minister” in an interview with NDTV. Champika Ranawaka tried to steal some limelight midweek by announcing that he will switch from SJB and be an ‘independent’ MP in parliament, calling for an interim national government but vowing not to be a Minister in the current Administration.

Thursday was all Basil-day, as Basil Rajapaksa made headlines with the brother of all resignations. The younger Rajapaksa has been at the centre of media criticisms for allegedly trying to scuttle even the highly watered-down 21A because it includes a provision to bar dual citizens from being MPs. He finally threw in the towel and decided to leave parliament but not politics. And he clarified his departure as ‘retiring from governance’ but not from active politics. Then he added this gem of a nugget for good measure: “I think we can see that our family is better at politics than at governance.” Lastly, he showed his absolute ignorance of not only Indian history and politics but also Sri Lankan history and politics by comparing the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in India.

Within a day after Basil’s resignation, the SLPP, Basil’s Party, announced that business tycoon Dhammika Perera will be replacing Basil Rajapaksa as its new National List MP. Mr. Perera may or may not prove to be a worthy member of parliament, but the question is what special skills he will bring to bear for addressing the current challenges. Earlier, there was much talk about bringing professional economists as National List MPs into parliament and taking them into cabinet as key ministers to deal with the current crisis. But professional economists do not carry the same political IOUs as business tycoons. After all the talk about a lean and diverse cabinet of ministers, the new Ranil-Rajapaksa cabinet continues to keep expanding and it is inclusive not of any special talent but of only old bandicoots.

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