Is cascading collapse unstoppable?

by Kumar David- 2022/06/26

The theory that Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) was brought in as PM to save the skin of the Rajapaksa Clan is very plausible. Mahinda was driven out when his attempted May 9 coup was foiled by public revolt, Basil reduced to scavenging and other clan members forced to hightail it from Cabinet. These defeats of the regime and Ranil’s appointment did indeed defuse pressure on the regime and the intensity of the protests on Galle Face and elsewhere quietened.

A much-weakened Gotabaya clung on to power, a shadow of himself, but retaining his military coterie and the incompetent, corrupt scoundrels he brought with him from California and injected into sinecures. Therefore, the thesis worked for a moment; but events have a logic and dynamic of their own, reality evolves and matters do not move as projected in well-laid plans. This is why political wakefulness and intelligence are indispensable; only sterile analysts seek to substitute the retelling of what happened in Russia in 1917 or Libya in recent times, and so on, for a grasp of the movement of events, for thinking on one’s feet and alertness to unravelling reality

In the four weeks since RW’s appointment the dynamics have indeed changed visibly and the relationship between RW and Gota evolved. On the whole changes during the month have moved to strengthen RW’s hand. Most significant is that RW has visibly asserted control of the Administration and Gota taken a back seat. RW is clearly and visibly in charge of negotiations with the IMF and foreign powers (for whatever they may be worth), Gota has conceded that he is finished as a President and has declared his intention not the run again.

And of course, on the constitutional side the 21st Amendment cleared by the Cabinet and sent to the Legal Draftsman in anticipation of tabling in Parliament transfers a considerable amount of power out of the Presidency and into the hands of Parliament. Thereafter there will be shift of power away of the Presidency; Parliament and PM will be the gainers. (This is not endorsement of 21A, the big lacuna is that the Executive Presidency is not abolished). Gotabaya is yesterday’s news; I am reluctant to devote any more space in today’s column to that person whose tenure was littered with imbecilic decisions.

The key players in the next four weeks in which it will become clear whether the immediate crisis leads to cascading collapse, which I fear may see chaos and anarchy follow in its wake, are RW and a disparate array of forces in the government parliamentary group, mainly the faction-ridden SLPP. If the RW government is pulled down, then there are in theory only two credible alternatives, chaos or an immediate general election. I am of the view, and I may be wrong, to appoint another person as PM will lead to an explosion of anger (not because the electorate loves RW but because it will be another game of dirty musical-chairs) and because it will rip-up the applecart of negotiations with the IMF and international lenders. I am afraid whether you love or hate RW you are stuck with him for the moment, at least till the prevailing extreme emergency has subsided. As I have said many times in this column the instant litmus test is the fuel crisis; shortages and food prices will take longer to deal with though hunger is biting many people very hard. Fuel queues are stark, visible and a flashpoint of anger; the fuel crisis is an in-you-face affront, it is a 24-hour reminder of a Ranil failure.

The next few weeks can swing in many directions. Every rumour turns false and sour. Petrol prices have been predicted to “go up tomorrow by Rs 50 to 70” for the last week. That the fateful tomorrow will dawn no one doubts, but why all the drama? Tankers bearing millions of metric tons of life giving hydrocarbons are, just outside, almost berthed or turned away because Lanka is bankrupt of dollars. This muddled status does not only mark the state of our finances, it is also a reflection of political uncertainty. Ranil, the SJP and government parliamentarians pull in different directions, the JVP-NPP issues strident protests but it’s a lot of hot-air, and the TNA could do better. Apart from this messy political side, the organs of state are in a muddled condition. The police and the military don’t know whether they are coming or going and in what direction to point. Instead of playing cheap political games for advantages of the moment it should take a firm and clear stand along these lines.

The RW government must remain in office for a short while more to complete bailout negotiations with the IMF et al. (What else? Are we going to form an Anura Kumara or Sajith government to continue the negotiations; do they know how even to approach the issues?) No one can guarantee whether ongoing negotiations will prove fruitful; I certainly will not offer odds on the outcome. But at this moment there is nothing else to do. You don’t shoot the pilot in mid-air whether he lost his parliamentary seat, is a political rightist, or whether he farts in public.

It is necessary to hold elections within a few months. It is not necessary to accept an RW led government beyond the ‘emergency phase’ noted in the previous bullet point. There is no need to lend support to a short- or medium-term economic programme that RW, Sajith or Rajapaksa-rump led political firmament may have up its sleeve. Once the emergency phase is passed (“Thank you Ranil”) let there be a new government with a fresh mandate from the people. Will the electorate muck it up again? Very likely, but at least it will be foist once again by its own toenails. The people of Sri Lanka are reaping what they have sowed for over seven decades; the Rajapaksas and such vermin were only the topping on the cake, the popularly acclaimed faeces decorating the nation.

Sri Lanka, both by long experience and psychologically is absolutely unsuitable for anything like a one-party system as in some socialistic inclined countries. It must be made plain clear and explicit that Lanka will remain democratic and governments will be chosen and kicked by the exercise of the franchise of the people.

The repeal of the executive presidential system, root and branch must be high on the agenda; this may have already been done in the years in between. An appropriate mixed electoral system should be introduced but I have no particular structure in mind.

There must be a firm commitment to the devolution of powers and governance to the people in the North and East and a renunciation of all discriminatory measures against the Ceylon Tamil, Muslim, Upcountry Tamil and Catholic communities. Sinhala-Buddhist majoritarian chauvinism must the programmatically denounced.

It seems to me that the next election if held within a few months will be won by liberal bourgeois outfit, Sajith or a Ranil-Sajith combo. Though I make no bones about my left-socialist proclivities I am quite reconciled to the thought that the people will neither understand nor vote such an option to power in the forthcoming elections. That’s fine, actually that’s better because the left parties have neither the broad knowledge-bases nor the administrative experiences needed to run a modern (Twenty-first Century) government. The delay is a blessing in disguise.

The forthcoming (by which I mean within say six months) elections will provide the left to fully air and debate in public its alternative economic programme; an opportunity it should welcome. If I had my way the more important differences with a right-wing or centre-right programmes will (should) be (a) a stronger directive role of government – the word is dirigisme – in medium and longer range economic policy; (b) a sympathetic orientation to the needs of the have-not classes; (c) directed emphasis on technology-science, education and English language skills for young people; (d) immediate release of all political prisoners and repeal of the PTA and many such unsavoury laws and administrative fiats.

Finally, matters such as respect for the law, non-interference with the judiciary and many similar matters the left shares with decent liberal democratic value systems.

This is rather more than necessary I have written on ideas for a draft left programme for an election in the near future; a semi-final run for a left government before the final encounter (the timing will depend on how long the next bourgeoise democratic elected government will function). The intervening period is a useful training ground for honing skills, sharpening minds and building contacts.

Back to my starting point: Will cascading collapse become catastrophic? No options are off the table. The urgent need is to shorten the fuel queues and to complete negotiations with the IMF and other agencies. This may buy a few further months to import food. Growing vegetables in your front yard is not going to fill anyone’s stomach with rice, dhal and greens in one or two months. If Lanka can get through the next one month on life support and the next few months in intensive care, systemic collapse and anarchy may be averted.

I would like give readers just one example about how much belt-tightening has been inflicted on this country in such a short period. The price of 92 octane petrol has already been raised (or will soon be raised) to about Rs 500 a litre. Now this corresponds to nearly US $5.25 per US gallon which is about the highest pump price that motorists pay in California. (One US gallon = 3.79 litres, and I have assumed one US dollar equivalent to LKR 360). The prices of diesel and cooking-gas too are not much out of alignment with American prices. Fuel prices dominate all prices. Estimates of price inflation of consumer goods vary by the day but 100% year on year is not on the low side. Wages have not risen one jot in months and years. Therefore, it is no longer possible to say that Sri Lankan consumers and the poor in this country are the recipients of large unearned handouts. A big part of the IMF’s pound of flesh has been paid by the crisis itself.

I am going to leave it at that for today. Anything one says at one moment is disproved the next.