Nugegoda tremors

Editorial-February 23, 2015

Last week’s successful pro-Mahinda rally at Nugegoda has unsettled the government though its leaders have sought to put a bold face on it. Claiming that they won’t be cowed by such muscle flexing they have gone into the attack mode. Wimal Weerawansa’s wife has been arrested over an alleged offence committed some years ago! He challenged them to do so and they did! Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has dared former President Mahinda Rajapaksa to contest the next general election if he can. President Maithripala Sirisena is reported to have faulted the SLFP seniors who attended the Nugegoda rally which was, in effect, a revolt against the current SLFP leadership.

Those who engineered the ouster of Rajapaksa are now racking their brains to prevent him from making a comeback. Some of them have suggested that no general election be held this year and/or President Sirisena return to Parliament as Prime Minster after abolishing the executive presidency. But, the government is desperate to finish its 100-day project against tremendous odds and have Parliament dissolved before the tide turns. After the completion of its ambitious programme, it won’t have much to offer to the people.

There is no guarantee that oil prices will remain low in the world market indefinitely. If the factors that led to international market manipulations such as the situation in Ukraine cease to be, oil prices are bound to shoot up aggravating Sri Lanka’s economic woes. That the government is struggling to prevent the rupee from tumbling is only too well known. Prices of most commodities are still at the pre-Jan. 08 level though the recent mini budget has brought some relief to the people. The public employees numbering about 1.5 million have not received the promised 10,000-rupee pay hike; the government tells them they will get only Rs. 7,000 as an allowance—Rs. 5,000 to be paid from this month and Rs. 2,000 from June. Even the JVP which backed the Opposition alliance to the hilt is now demanding that the promised 10,000-rupee salary increase be paid in addition to Rs. 3,000 given by the previous government.

The government has some serious problems to contend with on the political front as well. The JHU has been demanding action against the Rajapaksas. The JVP is also out for former President Rajapaksa’s scalp. In spite of their pre-election claims that they had irrefutable evidence against the top guns of the previous government and all that they needed to throw the corrupt behind bars was the election of Sirisena as President, none of those politicians has been thrown into the cooler so far.

The new government is blowing hot and cold on the abolition of the executive presidency. Ven. Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera and others of his ilk demand that the presidency be abolished once and for all, but the government wants only some powers vested therein curtailed so that the Prime Minister will be the de facto Head of State.

Meanwhile, the pro-Mahinda faction of the UPFA claims that if the Jan. 08 presidential poll had been a parliamentary election, the UPFA would have secured about 111 seats with the number of votes it polled (5.8 million). Psephologically speaking, the way people vote at presidential and parliamentary elections differ, but the fact remains that 6.2 million votes Sirisena polled will be divided among the UNP, the JVP, the JHU and the TNA at the June election with the SLMC possibly coalescing with the UNP. What the CWC will do remains to be seen. If the votes Sirisena polled on his own go back to the UPFA, then the SLFP-led Opposition will be able to turn the tables on the UNP. However, it is not statistics, but ground realities that determine the outcome of an election.

The intraparty rivalries have already cost the UPFA its unity, a prerequisite for its success at a general election. The new SLFP leadership controlled by former President Chandrika Kumaratunga will not be able to nominate the Rajapaksas to contest the June election, having vilified them. President Sirisena himself never misses an opportunity to tar and feather Mahinda Rajapaksa, his sons, siblings and cronies. It is highly unlikely that either Sirisena or Kumaratunga will want Rajapaksa to be associated with the UPFA’s general election campaign. But, if President Sirisena, as the SLFP leader, does not lead the UPFA’s general election campaign to appease the UNP which enabled him to secure the presidency, he will be strengthening the hands of Rajapaksa, who has offered to do so.

The thinking of the SLFP rebels is that unless Rajapaksa is allowed to lead the UPFA election campaign as the prime ministerial candidate, they should contest the general election separately and win enough seats to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. But, in such an eventuality, the SLFP/UPFA vote will be split much to the advantage of the UNP.

It is not only cricket, the game of glorious uncertainties, which takes you into a topsy-turvy world where you are sure of nothing. Politics also does!