Trump’s latest rage-tweets about Mueller and border wall reveal GOP weakness

Michael Cohen flipping? Opinion writer Jennifer Rubin says the Mueller investigation is looking more and more like a mafia case. (Gillian Brockell, Kate Woodsome/The Washington Post)

THE MORNING PLUM:

By Greg SargentJuly 30 at 10:07 AM

Over the weekend, President Trump escalated his rage-tweets about special counsel Robert S. Mueller III, threatened a government shutdown to get his great wall on the southern border, and blasted the news media for selling out the country, while basically shrugging at the idea that egging on his supporters’ hatred of the press might be placing independent journalists in greater danger. It’s a reminder that Trump’s authoritarianism and bigotry will be front and center in this fall’s midterm elections.

An important new analysis of the House map by Nate Cohn of the New York Times may help explain Trump’s escalations on all those fronts — or if not, it certainly provides crucial context for understanding how those escalations might shape the battle for control of the lower chamber.

Cohn’s central finding is that the House map is turning out to be a lot broader than we expected. The districts that are in play aren’t merely suburban ones in which Hillary Clinton did well in 2016; they also include many working-class and rural districts that voted for Trump. Cohn analyzed the 60 GOP-held House seats that are rated competitively (Lean Republican, Toss Up, and Lean/Likely Democratic) by the Cook Political Report. Here are the key conclusions about the aggregate electorate in those districts:

• The electorate in those 60 districts is 78 percent white, whereas the United States is 70 percent white overall.
• The electorate in those 60 districts is 65 percent suburban, whereas the United States overall is 55 percent suburban.
• The electorate in those 60 districts boasts about 31 percent college graduates, whereas the United States overall is 28 percent college graduates.
• Forty-nine percent of the electorate in those 60 districts voted for Trump in 2016, while 46 percent voted for Hillary Clinton. (Nationally, of course, Clinton actually won the popular vote by over two points.)

In short, the House battleground is only a bit more suburban and educated than the United States overall, and crucially, it’s whiter and more pro-Trump. The data is complicated by the need to use different voter pools to break out different demographic categories, but that’s the overall picture. The bottom line: The fact that this electorate shows Democrats with so many pickup opportunities suggests, as Cohn says, both that Democrats have recruited strong candidates in tough areas and that the national political environment may be “more favorable to Democrats than the generic ballot polls imply.” What’s more, Cohn notes that in special elections, Democratic candidates have already been running further ahead of Clinton in Trump districts than in Clinton-friendly ones.

In that context, Republican hopes of holding the House may turn on energizing core supporters and Trump voters.  If the map were narrower, and largely focused on suburban pro-Clinton districts, Republicans might have a better shot running on the GOP tax cut and the good economy, which could win back more affluent, better-educated, GOP-leaning whites who might be willing to overlook Trump’s ongoing lunacy on that basis.

But Republican incumbents are campaigning much less than expected on the tax cut, and the broader map may help explain why: Working-class whites (and, of course, minorities) are not the tax cut’s beneficiaries. Indeed, a new Politico analysis finds that some of the “biggest winners” from the tax cut are “corporate executives who have reaped gains as their companies buy back a record amount of stock, a practice that rewards shareholders by boosting the value of existing shares,” even as it is producing “less clear long-term benefits for workers.” Not exactly a potent message in fabled Trump country.

Enter Trump’s weekend rage-tweets. Trump went further than ever before in casting Mueller as corrupt (blasting unspecified “conflicts of interest“) and his investigation as illegitimate (an “illegal Scam“). Trump claimed he is “willing” to shut down the government if Democrats don’t support his wall. After New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger privately informed Trump that his anti-press rhetoric could lead to more violence against journalists, Trump only escalated his assaults on the media, claiming its “anti-Trump haters” are selling out the country.

It is not clear whether Trump deliberately intends these escalations to juice the base in advance of the midterms. But some Republican candidates have already been embracing Trump’s race-baiting immigration rhetoric and policies. And as the Mueller probe advances — and the news media fills in new details about possible Trump obstruction and collusion — Trump’s public rage will intensify, and GOP candidates will likely amplify his attacks on the investigation and on the press, to keep pro-Trump voters sufficiently energized behind them, an imperative on this broadening House map.

Trump’s latest rage-tweets, then, signal that an election that Republicans hoped would be about how their awesome tax cuts are supercharging the Trump economy may end up being shaped to no small degree by Trump’s bigoted and authoritarian appeals.

* REPUBLICANS AREN’T CAMPAIGNING ON TAX CUT: The New York Times reports that in races across the country, Republicans are saying little about the Trump/GOP tax cut. But guess who is talking about it:

Democrats are weaponizing the tax law — which is mired in only middling popularity — against Republican opponents in some key races. Their critiques have been fed by government statistics showing that wages for typical American workers have not risen over the past year, after adjusting for inflation, even though Republicans promised the tax cuts would unleash rapid wage growth.

Remember how the tax cut was supposed to juice the GOP base?

* DEM CANDIDATES EMBRACE GUN CONTROL: A Reuters analysis finds that Democratic candidates are embracing gun regulations in far greater numbers than in the past:

Thirty-eight of the 59 Democrats backed by the party’s “Red-to-Blue” campaign — targeting vulnerable Republican districts — have supported gun restrictions in their official platforms, a review of campaign websites shows. … Nearly all the Democrats in the three dozen most competitive races for the U.S. House of Representatives wrote multiple social media posts touting their support for anti-gun legislation.

A lot of this has to do with the high-visibility organizing of the Parkland kids, but some of it surely represents an outlet for the energy of the anti-Trump backlash.

* HOW DEMS HOPE TO DEFEAT KAVANAUGH: Politico reports that Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is urging red-state Democrats to remain noncommittal on Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh for as long as possible:

Schumer’s strategy starts like this: Hold his caucus in line and force Republicans to cough up 50 votes on their own. While his red-state members stall in the face of attacks from their GOP challengers, Schumer hopes to place massive pressure on moderate Republicans by raising damaging questions about Kavanaugh’s views on abortion, health care and presidential power.

The targets of this strategy, of course, are Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska). Meanwhile, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) meets with Kavanaugh Monday, which looms as a key test of Dem stalling power.

* GENDER GAP WIDENS BETWEEN PARTIES: The Wall Street Journal looks at all the House primaries this cycle with at least one woman and one man running, and finds:

66% of Democratic women have so far won their races, or 70 out of 106 contests, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. By contrast, only 38% of GOP women have won open primaries this year, or 11 out of 29 races.

Also, female lawmakers already make up a third of House Dems, while white men constitute almost 87 percent of the House GOP. Thanks to Trump, these trends are only likely to grow more marked.

* BANNON AND THE KOCHS ARE AT WAR: The Koch brothers’ retreat was marked by widespread criticism of Trump’s trade war. Politico reports that Stephen K. Bannon is none too pleased with the Kochs, insisting that supporting Trump’s full agenda is the only way for Republicans to win this fall. As Bannon put it: “What they have to do is shut up and get with the program, okay?”

Memo to Bannon: If Trump’s trade war is good politically for Republicans, they don’t appear to be aware of this, as many of them are distancing themselves from it as fast as they can.

* INCREASING TIES BETWEEN RUSSIA AND U.S. RIGHT WING: E.J. Dionne Jr. has a nice op-ed looking at the increasing affinity between the American right and Vladimir Putin’s Russia:

Putin’s Russia is creating a new Reactionary International built around nationalism, a critique of modernity and a disdain for liberal democracy. … The deepening ties … should give pause to all conservatives whose first commitment is to democratic life. The willingness of traditionalists and gun fanatics to cultivate ties with a Russian dictator speaks of a profound alienation among many on the right from core Western values — the very values that most conservatives extol.

And as Dionne notes, to the degree that conservative Republicans allow Trump to undermine the Mueller probe, that will also help Putin.

* AND RUDY CLAIMS MUELLER IS ‘BLUFFING’: Axios’s Jonathan Swan reports the latest from Trump’s lawyer [sic] Rudy Giuliani:

Giuliani told me that President Trump is fed up with Robert Mueller and wants him to “put up or shut up.”

What he’s saying: “Why don’t you write a report and show us what you have, because they don’t have a goddamn thing. It’s like a guy playing poker. He’s bluffing and he’s only got a pair of twos.”

Maybe Giuliani slept through all the indictments and plea deals Mueller has already rolled out? Somebody is bluffing here, but it isn’t Mueller.