Some Thoughts About The Change Under Gotabaya Rajapaksa

By DNR Samaranayaka –DECEMBER 14, 2020

DNR Samaranayaka

The 20th amendment to the constitution was passed recently with the support of 156 members of parliament; it was opposed by 65 opposition members. The passing of 20A was helped by the crossovers of about eight opposition parliamentarians. Although some members of the SLPP were against the removal of the dual citizenship clause, they eventually succumbed to the pressure from the Rajapaksas, and voted in support of the 20A. Those opposing the amendment was led by Samagi Janabala Wegaya (SJB), the main opposition in the parliament. They argued that 20A concentrates power in the hands of the president, making him the all-powerful president so far in this country. The dictatorial power grabbed by the president, by getting the 20A passed, is likely to bring back a fear based regime that prevailed earlier under the former president Mahinda Rajapaksa. 

20A and parliamentary election  

Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR) claimed that SLPP received the support of the people, at the general election held on 5th August 2020, to replace 19A with 20A as the new constitution. Voters, however, did not vote for the 20A since nothing was known about it at the time of the election. They came to know about it only when it was introduced in the parliament after the election. This is the reason that objections to the new constitution were raised and the petitions were filed in the Supreme Court only after the 20A was introduced in parliament. If people knew about the contents of 20A, before the election, the SLPP would have lost the general election as most people would not have supported the proposed constitution. In fact, the SLPP at the general election lost nearly 72,000 votes compared with the votes that GR received at the presidential election. People voted for the government not because they supported 20A, but to get rid of Yahaplanaya. On a number of occasions, after the parliamentary election, the president stated that he has got a mandate from the people to introduce 20A. This was a very irresponsible statement knowing that the people were not aware of what he had in mind. 

Two thirds majority of the government is also far from the truth. The number of seats required for a two thirds majority is 150 out of 225 members, but the government was 5 seats short; it was filled by those SJB members who crossed over to the government hoping to benefit from their cross over. Since SJB opposed the 20A, those crossed over to the government from SJB also opposed the 20A. Accordingly there is no legitimacy of considering SJB members as SLPP members supporting the 20A. The president also allowed a murderer to enter the parliament, who was an MP on a SLPP ticket. This disgraceful act would not have been carried out by the president if the MP was an opposition member. These acts by the president demonstrates the Rajapaksas greediness for power.   

Cabinet of Gotabaya Rajapaksa

About 50 of the SLPP members in the current parliament were also the members of the former Rajapaksa government; a number of them are also in the current cabinet, holding key positions.  With the exception of few new comers, most other cabinet members in Gotabaya cabinet are with educational qualifications less than the senior School certificate. A common man with such qualifications, on the other hand, cannot even get a position as an office aid. Unfortunately these MPs are the people who make decisions about the country’s future. Politicians of all sides give preferences to those with minimal qualifications at any election; the reason for this is that they obey the leadership and except their decisions. Their role is to raise their hands (athaosssanno) to support the leadership. Mahinda Rajapaksa is the one who accommodates this group as his preference is for less educated people in the cabinet. Unfortunately, the politicians of all political parties do not give priority to capable men and women to enter parliament; the people cannot do anything about it since the choice of the candidate is the responsibility of the party leadership. Voters will have to either to select someone from the list or abstain from voting. It is time to ask those seeking to be members of parliament to provide details about their educational qualifications, age, and positions held in the past. Most of the members in the parliament have no respect to the position they hold. Former president Sirisena made a promise to introduce a code of conduct for parliamentarians soon after he became the president; but, like most other promises, this one too had been limited to just a promise. 

The performance of the economy

The growth rate of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) averaged around 3.1% during the last ten years ending in 2019. The highest growth rate of 4.8% was recorded in 2015 and the lowest was 2.3% in 2019. These figures clearly suggest that the economy was underperforming despite being a relatively peaceful period.  Both the former government and the Yahapalanaya failed to reach the country’s full potential. Given the poor economic performance in the country, it is not a surprise that the external factors that adversely effected the economy such as the Easter Sunday attack and the corona virus resulted in further economic destabilization. The country is going through the second phase of the virus with more causalities and many more issues to deal with compared to the first wave. 

As a result of poor economic performance, a number of issues related to the economy had emerged since the end of 2019. These include rising foreign debt and debt repayment obligations, falling international reserves and government revenue, slowing down of the economy, and rising deficits in international trade and balance of payment accounts. The most difficult problem that the country is confronted with is the looming debt crisis. It is going to remain as the most difficult problem that the country has to deal with during the next few years. Currently, Sri Lanka’s outstanding foreign debt is about US$56 billion, including sovereign bonds, which are foreign currency denominated government bonds. Obtaining loans by issuing bonds is not too difficult, provided the country has a record of good ratings. They account for nearly 40% of total foreign debt. The balance is accounted by multilateral and bilateral lending agencies. The annual repayment of debt plus interest on debt is currently around US$5.2 billion and it is likely to remain at this level for few more years. 

The former Rajapaksa administration and Yahaplanaya are both equally responsible for the current situation in the country. The beginning of the debt crisis was during the former President Rajapaksa who was heavily dependent on borrowings from China.  He obtained about US$8 billion from China between 2010 and 2015. Almost all that money was spent on projects which failed to deliver benefits as expected. A major part of this debt was spent on two projects: Hambantota harbour and Mattala airport. Both were unsuccessful. The Mattala airport was built at a cost of US$ 275 million in 2016 but it still remain as an airport rarely used for international travel. It was built by clearing an animal habitat. Any leader with an iota of brain will not make such an ignorant decision.  In the case of Hambantota port also commenced building without a comprehensive survey of the harbour. Later a rock obstructing the entrance to the harbour was detected and it cost nearly $450 million to remove it. In the end, Sri Lanka could not service the debt on the Hambantota harbour and the Wickremasinghe government was forced to give the Hambantota harbour to China on a 99 year lease for $1.2 billion. Borrowings between 2015 and 2019 by Yahapalanaya added another $20 billion bringing the total closer to US$ 60 billion. Yahapalanaya was also involved in various corrupt schemes, during their period of government; the Bonds scam was the biggest financial fraud. It was never fully investigated since the two leaders were also involved in this massive racket. The Yahapalanaya   government also spent millions on luxury vehicles, foreign travel, and additional allowances to parliamentarians. 

The debt as a ratio to GDP reached 66% in 2019. This is the third highest ratio after 106% in 2002 and 71% in 2014. The main sources of repayment of foreign debt are from export earnings, foreign investments and remittances from Sri Lankans working abroad. Earnings from exports in 2019 totalled about US$11.1 billion and payments for imports were around US$ 18.7 billion, giving a deficit of US$ 7.57 billion. Remittances of about $7 billion barely helped meet the deficit or the difference between exports and imports in 2019. These figures demonstrate the vulnerable situation that the country is faced with in the immediate future.  There were some concern in the community that the government may not be able to meet the debt obligation for 2020. However, it has been successfully settled by the government which amounted to US $4.2. This does not mean that the government has the ability to settle debts that become payable in the near future. A major part of the debt repayment this year came from the country’s foreign reserves. The amount of foreign reserves currently available is expected to be around US$ 1 billion.  

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